World News

Here We Go Again: Israel’s 5th Election on the Horizon

As the government moves to dissolve the Knesset, sending thecountry back to the polls, experts believe the result will bepolitical deadlock, again

On Wednesday, the Israeli parliament voted to dissolve itself, inthe first of four readings that the bill needs to become law.

The process is expected to conclude on Monday, or perhaps aday or two later, after which the Foreign Minister Yair Lapidwill become caretaker prime minister until an election is heldand a new government is formed.

The expected election which will be the country’s fifth in threeand a half years.

On Monday evening, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett andForeign Minister Yair Lapid announced they would begin theprocess of dissolving the Knesset. They did so to preempt theopposition, which they expected to bring down the governmentnext week.

Professor Jonathan Rynhold, head of the Department of PoliticalStudies at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv, toldThe Media Line the results of the election that will be held at theend of October or the beginning of November are expected to bevery similar to those of the last one held in March 2021.

Eyal Lewin, chairman of the Department of MultidisciplinaryStudies at Ariel University, explained that the participation ratein Israeli elections is always high and that therefore, theoutcome won’t be very different from the last four elections.

Israelis, he told The Media Line, “will go to vote just like theprevious times. Israelis vote, they care about the results. Andbecause Israelis are going to vote, and also voted during the lastrounds, the chances of any meaningful change are very small.”

The election could produce several possible scenarios.

According to Rynhold, the most likely outcome is that no partywill manage to form a coalition with the majority of theparliament, as is needed to form a government.

If that happens, he added, either Lapid will continue as primeminister and there will be another election or former PrimeMinister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will force him tostep down as its candidate for the premiership.

In that case, a center/right-wing government will be formed,probably led by Likud, and Lapid and his Yesh Atid party willbe part of it, explained Rynhold.

However, he believes the chances of his party turning onNetanyahu out are low. “It is by no means certain the Likudwould displace Netanyahu; therefore, an election would bepossible,” continued Rynhold.

Another scenario would see Netanyahu, the religious parties, and the far-right parties get 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset and form a government. “I think that is the second most likely outcome,” Rynhold said.

Lastly, Lapid might manage to form a government similar to thecurrent one, based on the same coalition.

As for Bennett, Lewin believes his only chance to be re-elected is to leave Yamina and join another party.

He lost his base the moment he formed an alliance withMansour Abbas, chairman of the Islamist Ra’am party, Lewinsaid. “So his voters won’t vote for him. His only chance to getvoted in is if he joins with somebody else.”

Lewin said that Bennett can’t run like he did the last time, “him,[Interior Minister Ayelet] Shaked and another two or three[candidates in their own party], because they won’t be in theKnesset.”

Rynhold added that even though Bennett is “politically burned”right now, he is not out of the game.

“I think that for the time being, Bennett is ‘burned’ politically.But many people have come back from being burned in Israelipolitics, including Netanyahu and Ariel Sharon. So just becausehe’s burned now, it doesn’t mean he’s out,” he continued.

Lapid, on the other hand, heads to the election in a much bettersituation.

“It’s always an advantage to be on the horse when you’re in therace,” said Lewin, referring to Lapid assuming the caretakerprime minister role until a new government is formed.

“It’s a great advantage because people get used to seeing him asa prime minister, to seeing him as a leader,” he added.

Netanyahu, who is seeking a third stretch as prime minister,evokes conflicting emotions among Israelis.

There is no general Israeli opinion about Netanyahu, saidRynhold. “Israel is divided. The ideological Right, the ultra-Orthodox and Likud loyalists love Netanyahu, and the rest of thecountry hates him,” he added.

Rynhold explained that Netanyahu’s chances of forming agovernment depend on the turnout, “particularly the turnout inthe Arab sector.” The higher that turnout, the worse it is forNetanyahu, and the better it is for Lapid and the coalitionpartners in the current government, he explained.

The last possibility, one that Bennett wants to prevent bydissolving the Knesset as quickly as possible, is for agovernment headed by Netanyahu to be formed without anelection.

However, Rynhold believes the chances for that to happen arevery low.

To do that, he explained, Netanyahu would need 61 votes for a“constructive no-confidence vote.”

“I don’t see the Arab parties giving him [the votes he needs toreach] 61, and I don’t see anyone in the [current] coalition withenough lawmakers giving him 61 either,” Rynhold said.

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Abraham Accords Are Secure Despite Israeli Gov’t Turmoil, Gulf Analysts Say

Solidarity against Iran the key, and it will continue, the consensus finds

The political instability and the pending elections in Israel will not affect the Abraham Accords normalization agreements, a majority of Gulf and Arab experts say.

Gulf media outlets view the problems plaguing the Bennett government and the Knesset as a political dispute between the various political parties in Israel, while some newspapers indicate that these differences are related to the corruption charges against the opposition leader and former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

“Bahrain and the UAE wish for political stability in Israel, especially since stability there means moving forward in the new relationship with the Hebrew state,” Saad Rashid, a Bahraini political analyst, told The Media Line.

“There will certainly be no impact on the Abraham Accord. Some other agreements, whether related to the economy, education, or other areas, may be delayed, but certainly, there will be no retreat from the Abraham agreements,” Rashid said.

Marwan Hatem, a journalist specializing in Israeli affairs, toldThe Media Line, “The political differences within the Israeli government have been going on for more than four years, and they do not significantly affect foreign policies.

“The most important thing for the Gulf and Arab countries is for the new Israeli government to maintain its anti-Iranian stance, which puts pressure on the reluctant US administration to reject any return to the nuclear agreement with Iran that might cause a crisis in the region,” he continued.

“[Likely interim Prime Minister] Yair Lapid, [outgoing Prime Minister Naftali] Bennett, and others are hostile to Iran. Military and security agreements with the countries of the region will continue, and this is the most important thing,” Hatem said.

Montaser Qassem, a journalist specializing in Iranian affairs, told The Media Line, “I do not expect a change with regard tothe deployment of anti-missile, radar, and anti-drone systems in the Gulf in both Bahrain and the Emirates, which were previously announced.

“With regard to the Palestinian issue, the countries that signed peace agreements with Israel still believe in the two-state solution, which is perhaps the decision within the Israeli government, but the most important thing for all the countries now is the stability of the region,” Qassem said.

Gulf and Arab activists who usually tweet about Israeli affairs did not comment on the political problems of the Israeli government and the announced dissolution of the Knesset and only reported the news as it was.

Mohammed Naqi, an Emirati writer, agreed with the above commentators on the Gulf states’ priorities regarding Israel.

“Gulf countries do not interfere in internal affairs [of other countries] and respect them as usual, and they deal with any other government according to the norms, charters, and agreements between the two countries,” Naqi said.

A member of the Bahraini parliament who preferred not to be named commented for The Media Line, “Certainly, the agreements with Israel are stable, and the Israeli government’s position toward Iran is also consistent because Iran is a common enemy.”

He added, “What we fear is an internal change toward a policy of expanding settlements in the [Palestinian] territories, or the continuation of pressure and practices toward Al-Aqsa Mosque, or that the new government will be tougher on the Palestinians

“It is true that Israeli policy is stable, and it is a state of institutions that does not depend on personal decisions, but there were also governments that were less severe in dealing with the Palestinians, and others that were very severe. We hope that the new government in Israel will realize the importance of easing pressure on the Palestinians and speeding up the two-state solution,” the Bahraini lawmaker said.

In the same context, the Palestinian-born Al-Jazeera journalistJamal Rayyan held a nonscientific poll on his official Twitter account showing that 93% of the thousands of respondents rejectthe idea of creating an alliance between Arab countries and Iran to confront Israel.

Rayyan, who holds American citizenship, is known for his hatred and criticism of the peace agreements with Israel. He deleted the poll’s result and submitted it for a revote, claiming the initial results had been distorted by “the sudden entry of 4,000 votes by Zionist flies in order to mislead Arab public opinion.”

Mutlaq al-Anzi, a Saudi political analyst, told The Media Line:“Israeli policies are fixed, and they will not change regardingany of the regional or internal files, no matter how governments change. There is no fear of any future government in Israel.”

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SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) -Heatwaves in northern and central China drove up electricity demand to record levels as millions switched on air conditioners to escape the sweltering conditions, while floodwaters in the south submerged villages and trapped city residents.

On Wednesday, China’s meteorological administration issued orange alert warnings for high temperatures in regions across the provinces of Shandong, Henan and Hebei.

Several cities in Shandong, China’s second-most populous province, have issued “red alert” high temperature warnings, which have pushed up demand for air-conditioning among the region’s more than 100 million people.

Temperatures in the regions were expected to hit above 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) this week, according to the state weather forecaster.

The maximum electricity load at Shandong’s grid hit 92.94 million kilowatts on Tuesday, passing the 2020 peak of 90.22 million kilowatts, setting a new record, state television said on Wednesday.

Loads in adjacent Henan province reached a peak of 71.08 million kilowatts on Monday, exceeding the previous day’s record of 65.34 million kilowatts, according to state media.

Premier Li Keqiang, visiting a thermal power company in the northern province of Hebei, said China must increase coal production capacity to “resolutely prevent power outages”, according to a state media summary published late on Tuesday.

Parts of Hebei, Henan and Shandong have faced drought-like conditions throughout June, as high temperatures arrived earlier this summer than in previous years.

TRAPPED BY FLOODS

As heatwaves baked northern and central China, heavy rain has been falling in seven provinces in the south, including Guangdong, the country’s most populous.

On Wednesday, 113 rivers in China flooded above warning levels, with seven above historical levels, state television quoted the water resources ministry as saying.

In Guangdong, the provincial emergency management department said heavy rainfall has impacted 479,600 people, 27.13 hectares of crops and collapsed 1,729 houses, resulting in economic loss of 1.756 billion yuan ($261 million), state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

Residents in Yingde, a city in Guangdong where the flood warning had been upgraded to Level I, said on social media that water and power had been cut as the area flooded.

China has a four-tier alert system where Level I signals the most severe flooding.

“The water came very fast, and I believe many have not prepared foodstuff in their homes,” said a user on China’s Twitter-like microblog Weibo.

Stores have run out of staple foods like oil and rice as residents rushed to stockpile, a local resident told Reuters.

Yingde authorities have relocated some residents in the south of the city and advised others not to leave their homes.

In Jiangxi province, trapped villagers were rescued after floods washed away roads and bridges, state television reported.

($1 = 6.7153 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Reporting by Albee Zhang, Ella Cao and Ryan Woo in Beijing, Wang Jing in Shanghai and Josh Horwitz; Additional reporting by Liz Lee in Kuala Lumpur; Editing by Michael Perry)

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MOSCOW (Reuters) – Members of the Russian delegation to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were denied British visas to attend the next session, Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy head of Russian upper house’s international affairs committee, said on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Alex Richardson)

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TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan scrambled jets on Tuesday to warn away 29 Chinese aircraft in its air defence zone, including bombers that flew to the south of the island and into the Pacific, in the latest uptick in tensions and largest incursion since late May.

Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has complained for the past two years or so of repeated missions by the Chinese air force near the democratically governed island, often in the southwestern part of its air defence identification zone, or ADIZ, close to the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands.

Taiwan calls China’s repeated nearby military activities “grey zone” warfare, designed to both wear out Taiwanese forces by making them repeatedly scramble, and also to test Taiwanese responses.

The latest Chinese mission included 17 fighters and six H-6 bombers, as well as electronic warfare, early warning, antisubmarine and an aerial refuelling aircraft, Taiwan’s defence ministry said.

Some of the aircraft flew in an area to the northeast of the Pratas, according to a map the ministry provided.

However, the bombers, accompanied by an electronic warfare and an intelligence gathering aircraft, flew into the Bashi Channel which separates Taiwan from the Philippines and into the Pacific before turning back to China on the route they came in.

Taiwan sent combat aircraft to warn away the Chinese aircraft, while missile systems were deployed to monitor them, the ministry said, using standard wording for its response.

It was the largest incursion since Taiwan reported 30 Chinese aircraft in its ADIZ on May 30. The largest to date this year occurred on Jan. 23, involving 39 aircraft.

There was no immediate comment from China, which has in the past said that such moves were drills aimed at protecting the country’s sovereignty.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson told Reuters in an email that Beijing should “cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and intimidation against Taiwan”.

China launched its third aircraft carrier on Friday, the Fujian, named after the province opposite Taiwan.

China’s military said last month it had conducted an exercise around Taiwan as a “solemn warning” against its “collusion” with the United States.

That came after U.S. President Joe Biden angered China by appearing to signal a change in a U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan by saying the United States would get involved militarily if China were to attack the island.

China has stepped up pressure on Taiwan to accept its sovereignty claims. The Taipei government says it wants peace but will defend itself if attacked.

No shots have been fired and the Chinese aircraft have not been flying in Taiwan’s air space, but in its ADIZ, a broader area Taiwan monitors and patrols that acts to give it more time to respond to any threats.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard in Taipei and Michael Martina in Washington; Editing by Frank Jack Daniel and Mark Heinrich)

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SOFIA, Bulgaria (AP) — Bulgarian lawmakers on Tuesday started debating a no-confidence motion against the minority government, on the eve of the vote that could well topple centrist Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, elected just months ago on pledges to fight corruption.

Parliament will vote Wednesday on the motion filed last week by the center-right opposition GERB party, over the government’s handling of the public finances and economic policy in the face of sharply rising inflation.

If the motion passes, as expected, it will thrust the NATO and European Union nation of 7 million people back into political turmoil. In 2021, three separate general elections were held as Bulgaria lurched from one political crisis to another. Political instability could also boost historically strong Russian influence in the Black Sea country that has seen a spike in pro-Russian and anti-Western propaganda.

Petkov’s coalition controls only 109 of parliament’s 240 seats, after his populist coalition partner, the There is Such a People party, quit this month over similar fiscal complaints and Bulgaria’s relations with neighboring North Macedonia. While five legislators from the party defected to Petkov, he will need at least another 6 votes to survive Wednesday’s ballot.

Inflation in Bulgaria — the EU’s poorest member — hit 15.6% in May, which is the highest year-on-year increase in consumer prices since 2008.

About a thousand pro-government protesters converged near the parliament building in the capital Sofia late Tuesday, to express their support for Petkov’s administration with chants of “we will succeed together.”

Petkov, a 42-year-old Harvard-educated businessman elected in December, addressed the rally — telling supporters that “we will all change Bulgaria together.”

“I believe that no matter what tomorrow’s vote will be, no one can stop us,” he said. “Sooner or later Bulgaria will be where it should be: a prosperous European (country), with working institutions, a working judiciary, good education (and) healthcare.”

Several hundred anti-government protesters also gathered Tuesday evening near parliament.

Petkov urged lawmakers on Tuesday to keep “the interests of the people” in mind when they vote.

Ruslan Stefanov, program director at the Center for the Study of Democracy, a Sofia-based think tank, described the no-confidence motion as the result of “internal squabbling over the allocation of budgetary funds.”

“This is not a good moment for Bulgaria not to have a parliament,” he told The Associated Press. “Bulgaria is about to receive about 4 billion (euros) in funds from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Mechanism, but needs to adopt a package of about 20 laws before this happens — Bulgaria needs this money.”

Bulgaria has been steadfast in backing the west’s sanctions against Moscow since it invaded Ukraine on 24. Feb. In late April, Russia cut off the country’s gas supplies after officials refused to pay for bills in rubles, Russia’s currency.

But the current crisis, Stefanov added, especially if prolonged and leading to another election, would favor “forces that will be much closer to Russia that will win a bigger chunk of the pie,” potentially creating issues with Bulgaria’s western partners.

GERB, the opposition party that triggered Wednesday’s vote, is headed by former prime minister Boyko Borissov, who governed Bulgaria for about a decade until 2021.

In March, Borissov, who faced huge anti-government protests in 2020, was detained in a corruption crackdown along with other GERB party members following investigations by the EU prosecutor’s office. He was released a day later without being charged.

——

McGrath contributed from Sighisoara, Romania.

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ROME (Reuters) – Italy’s Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio said on Tuesday he was leaving the 5-Star Movement to form a new parliamentary group backing the government of Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

Di Maio’s move comes after he accused 5-Star leader and former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte of undermining government efforts to support Ukraine and weakening Rome’s standing within the European Union.

“Today’s is a difficult decision I never imagined I would have to take … but today me and lots of other colleagues and friends are leaving the 5-Star Movement,” Di Maio, himself a former 5-Star leader, told a news conference.

(Reporting by Angelo Amante, editing by Gavin Jones)

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By Corina Pons

MADRID (Reuters) – Standing by his swimming pool at his home in an affluent Madrid suburb, retired engineer Juan Manuel Cosmes Cuesta enthuses over the 30% state subsidy he will get for installing solar panels that have already more than halved his monthly power bills.

    “Lots of people we know – neighbours, my wife’s friends in the area – are doing it and everyone is happy,” he said.

Not so in less wealthy areas a short drive away.

“I understand that for these subsidies you have to put up part of the money first and that it is a lot for many people,” said Manuel Blanco, a 44-year-old plumber who lives in the 1970s-built San Pascual district.

Others said the top priority was lifts as they struggle up the many flights of stairs in old apartment blocks.

“What we need most here are elevators to help the elderly,” said Candela Garcia, 73, who has lived in the working class Orcasitas neighbourhood south of the Spanish capital since she was a child.

    As Europe doubles down on green ambitions made more urgent by a fuel and cost of living crisis, the disconnect between Madrid’s suburbs highlights a wider dilemma for policy-makers: how to ensure low-income groups are not left further behind as economies embrace the energy transition ahead.

Cosmes Cuesta is comfortably off rather than rich, but he can afford the wait for his state subsidy.

“I don’t know when they will pay it, but eventually they will,” he said.

Grievances over social justice were at the heart of the “yellow vest” protests in France in 2018 that prompted President Emmanuel Macron to abandon an ecology tax on petrol and diesel, which was meant to limit fossil fuel use, but was seen as hitting those who could least afford it.

Similarly, questions of fairness arise as governments hand out subsidies to try to reduce emissions and also reliance on imported Russian fossil fuel through increased use of renewable energy and improved insulation.

Spain is using EU grants as part of a goal to make 510,000 dwellings more energy-efficient by 2026, notably targeting the apartment blocks in which two thirds of Spaniards live and that are mostly over two decades old and poorly insulated.

    In some cases, subsidies can cover up to 80% of costs and include upfront payments or tax breaks. Construction groups, such as Ferrovial or OLHA, and banks, including BBVA and Santander, are encouraging take-up by offering to help with the application paperwork and financing.

    As a further sweetener for apartment-dwellers, some projects price in the installation of elevators.

Aid for accessibility ramps and lifts remains the subsidy most sought by residents’ associations from the Madrid housing office, as 40% of Spain’s residential buildings with four floors or more do not have an elevator, official figures show.

Regarding the new subsidies, residents’ associations, consultants and researchers told Reuters low-income apartment owners were either unaware of them or reluctant to sign up.

    “There is still very little interest among residential owners,” said Salvador Diez Lloris, president of the national building administrators’ association.

    Andimat, the national association of companies that sell insulation products, calculated that for a full renovation of a typical six-floor block – changing windows, facades and roofs – a 65% subsidy of the 159,000 euro ($167,363) cost would be available.

That would cut energy consumption by 59%, but each household would still have to find 4,600 euros up-front.

But Andimat director Luis Mateo said there was no “sales boom in refurbishment”.

BASKING IN SOLAR ENERGY

Contrast that with the brisk trade in subsidised solar panels in the wealthier suburbs of Madrid and Barcelona, where one-family houses dominate: Christopher Cederskog, chief executive and co-founder of solar supplier SunHero, expects least at 30% more installations this year.

“My clients are asking a lot about subsidies,” Cederskog told Reuters.

    The two-speed take-up means in practice that while Blanco the plumber saw the electricity bill for his apartment double to 270 euros per month in the winter, retired engineer Cosmes Cuesta saw his bills drop from 120 euros in December to just 43 euros in April after his panels were installed.

“Our society has not sufficiently internalised the improvement of energy efficiency”, said María José Piccio-Marchetti, Director General of Housing and Rehabilitation of the Community of Madrid. “It is a change of concept.”

As Belgium, France, Italy and others all seek to improve energy efficiency and energy bills surge, Marie Le Mouel, affiliate fellow at Brussels-based Bruegel Institute, said now is the time to offer grants – but the challenge is to design the schemes properly.

    “Energy efficiency of building stock is kind of the next big item on the decarbonisation agenda,” she said. “In Europe every country is struggling to find the right mechanisms to make this work.”

    Italy’s “super-bonus” scheme is even more generous than Spain’s. The state pays 110% of the cost of turning buildings green, from insulation to solar panels to replacing boilers and window fittings – has created jobs and boosted the economy, but has also run into issues of fairness.

    “The benefits have gone to very few people, mainly the well-off and well-qualified with houses in the historic centres of large cities, particularly in the northern half of the country,” small-business lobby and think tank CGIA said in a report.

Silvia Pastorelli, a climate and energy campaigner for Greenpeace, said one approach could involve grants for the less well-off and subsidised loans for the wealthier. She praised Belgium’s scheme for linking grant size to household income.

“You shouldn’t need to own the roof above you or the walls around you to benefit from solar panels or insulation, and you shouldn’t need tens of thousands in your account to renovate if you struggle to pay your heating bills,” she said.

    Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’ left-leaning government acknowledges the problem but says the scheme is unprecedented and it is essential to make a start.

Authorities and businessmen are betting that once the first buildings manage to pay less for electricity following renovation work and subsidies, more owners will seek those aids as they see that their neighbours have succeeded.

David Lucas, general secretary for housing and urban agenda at the Transport Ministry, estimated the 4 billion euros allocated to this plan would be spent by 2026 as 9.3 million homes in the country need to be renovated.

    “Billions of euros cannot be a problem, it has to be an opportunity,” he said.

($1 = 0.9500 euros)

(Additional reporting by Gavin Jones in Rome and Belen Carreno in Madrid; editing by Mark John and Barbara Lewis)

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Saudi Crown Prince: 5 Years in Power and Going Strong

Mohammed bin Salman is shaking up his conservative kingdom with major liberal social and economic reforms

On the fifth anniversary of his being named crown prince of Saudi Arabia, the young and powerful Mohammed bin Salman is touring Middle East capitals ahead of US President Joe Biden’s visit next month.

He is the de facto ruler of the wealthy desert kingdom, as he rules with an iron fist under the protection of his ailing 86-year-old father, King Salman.

Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told The Media Line that the prince oversees managing the kingdom’s daily affairs.

“I would call Mohammed bin Salman the head of government or the day-to-day ruler.”

Prince Mohammed has been accused of ordering the killing of Saudi national and journalist Jamal Khashoggi at his country’s consulate in Istanbul in 2018.

The 36-year-old favorite son of King Salman has his father’s absolute support, and the backing of the Al Saud family, having virtually eliminated all competition.

US intelligence implicated him in Khashoggi’s death, saying that Prince Mohammed “approved” an operation to capture or kill Khashoggi, a charge he denies.

That led to his isolation, and he was shunned by many Western leaders.

On November 19, 2019, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden said during the Democratic Party debate that he would not sell Saudi Arabia weapons.

During his presidential campaign, Biden said he wanted to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah.”

But the US president’s visit to the kingdom next month will reintroduce the prince to the international community.

On his first trip to the Gulf region as president, Biden plans to see MbS during the meeting with King Salman.

“In the US you have candidates who say one thing on the campaign trail and do something totally different once they’re in office,” Giorgio Cafiero, CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington, told The Media Line.

“At this point, the practicalities of realpolitik are trumping more posturing,” says Cafiero.

Western countries have imposed harsh sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine that include a near boycott of Russian oil and gas, sending energy prices soaring, sparking worldwide inflation, and threatening an acute shortage of energy.

Ibish says Biden could explain his policy shift on Saudi Arabia by saying his top priority is the American people.

“He can say ‘I have my own feelings about human rights but my job as president is to defend the American people and serve the national interest,’ and he may say he is doing these unpleasant things in the name of statecraft,” says Ibish.

Cafiero says the shift in rhetoric from the White House toward Riyadh, and world leaders flocking to the kingdom for a meeting with MbS after years of dismissing him, is a major victory for MbS as they try to convince him to increase his country’s oil output.

“The fact that you have [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan, [French President Emmanuel] Macron, soon Biden in Saudi Arabia − this tells us that major leaders around the Islamic and Western worlds are coming to terms with what seems to be the future. Whether you love Mohammed bin Salman or you hate him it seems he’s going to be the next king and governments all over the world have to start engaging him,” Cafiero says.

Since Mohammed became crown prince in June 2017, he has shaken up his conservative kingdom with major liberal social and economic reforms.

MbS has been acting as a king, making major political and economic decisions that will affect his country for generations to come.

Ibish says there is a sense of anger and frustration in Riyadh and among Saudis that as popular as his decisions have been, they are overlooked by the West.

“He doesn’t get a lot of credit for it and Saudi Arabia doesn’t get credit for. All fixated on one assassination, … human rights cases and the Yemen war.”

Ibish, who has been to the kingdom several times in the last few years, is “astounded” by the change undertaken by MbS, describing it as an “extraordinary transformation.”

“MbS is an incredible social reformer. We haven’t seen something like this maybe in a hundred years, maybe since Japan in the 19th century. This kind of transformation is so dramatic and so sudden that it’s mind–boggling.”

His highly ambitious Saudi Vision 2030 strategic framework aims to free the kingdom from its dependence on oil, diversify its economy and create financial opportunities for Saudis.

He is undertaking a risky yet ambitious program to modernize ultra-conservative Saudi Arabia and assert its primacy in the Middle East and beyond.

He is credited with opening the door for Saudi women to drive and lifting the ban on them attending concerts and sporting events.

Prince Mohammed has ruthlessly consolidated control over the kingdom’s economic and security power centers.

His aim is to satisfy young Saudis and attract foreigners to work there. He also hopes to draw tourists.

He seems to have the support of Saudi youth, who are thirsting for more freedoms and openness to the world.

Saudi Arabia is a young country, with more than two-thirds of the population under the age of 35.

“We need more jobs, we need political, social, and economic reforms, and that is what the crown prince is doing right now,” says 28-year-old Mohammad Madini, who has a business degree but is still looking for a job.

Madini told The Media Line that the kingdom has been neglected for decades with no serious vision of how to prepare for the future.

“Change will not happen easily and fast, but we can see the wheel of change in motion, and it is a serious matter. He is young and understands what needs to happen,” Madini says.

But all this has been tarnished and overshadowed by the killing of Khashoggi and the imprisonment of hundreds of activists, journalists, academics, and clerics.

And in a move to assert his control, Mohammed has taken even greater control of the Saudi media, making sure the message dispersed is controlled.

He has sent dozens of nonviolent clerics and Islamic intellectuals to prison, leading current and former US officials to question whether his talk of reform masks a crackdown on dissent.

Prince Mohammed is also the minister of defense, and he is the architect behind the intervention in the war in Yemen in 2015 to block Saudi Arabia’s archenemy Iran.

The seven-year-old Saudi-led military coalition that includes the United Arab Emirates, fighting against Iran-backed Houthi rebels, killed hundreds of thousands of people and helped to cause the world’s worst humanitarian crisis with millions of Yeminis on the brink of famine.

But sudden change often ends badly in the Middle East, and warning flags are raised for some by the crown prince’s actions at home and abroad.

“My belief is that the social, cultural, and hopeful economic liberalization that is supposed to be going on in SA − this last one is the hardest − dovetails with the political repression and political centralization because I think there’s a fear that these liberalization reforms could lead to the downfall of the government,” says Ibish.

He doesn’t see any forces at this time that might hinder MbS’s efforts to become the next king.

“Without a doubt, it’s easy to be confident that he’ll become a king because you have to ask yourself what would stop him. Everything is in place,” Ibish says.

Many describe the prince as unstable, but Ibish says that despite the cause for concern, “you’d have to say yes he’s going to be the next king.

“He’s very ruthless and he’s very volatile, and you are not sure which version of him you are going to get at any given moment,” continues Ibish. “I think you’d have to say yes. The real question is about his volatility. He’s young, and so is this youth or character rational? Inexperience or he’ll never grow into the role, we have no idea. But you’d have to bet yes. Because he’s been an effective crown prince, he does govern day to day.”

Ibish says the narrative that Saudi Arabia is an unstable state is “pretty weak.”

“[The kingdom] seems stable enough for him to ascend to the throne. It seems like it.”

Cafiero says MbS “certainly made some decisions in the past that come across as being very aggressive, some people in the region have a perception of him as a loose cannon, at times his judgment has been horrible,” but he argues that the prince has learned from his mistakes.

“I would like to think that over the years Mohammed bin Salman has learned some lessons and matured,” Cafiero says.

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Ahead of Biden Summit, MbS Tours Egypt, Jordan, Turkey

Many in the Hashemite Kingdom hope the Saudi crown prince’s visit will end a period of coldrelations and help to improve the economic situation

The maverick crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, also known by the initialsMbS, is embarking on a three-country tour aimed at coordinating the narrative of key MiddleEast states during US President Joe Biden’s upcoming summit with regional leaders.

The summit will take place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in mid-July, and be attended by the GulfCooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UnitedArab Emirates) as well as King Abdullah of Jordan, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt andIraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Media Line that the prince’s regional tour is an effort to demonstrate before the Biden visit that he is far from isolated and that Saudi Arabia is a key regional player.

“MbS is only traveling where he’s assured a warm reception with Turkey as the most importantstop, indicating that as far as [President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan is concerned the [Jamal]Khashoggi file is now closed,” Miller says.

In Jordan, the visit has gained importance because of the tension between Jordan and SaudiArabia on topics such as the Hashemite custodianship of holy places in Jerusalem, and the“mutiny case” where Prince Hamzah, the half-brother of King Abdullah, was arrested in April2021 after allegations he engaged in a plot aimed at destabilizing the king’s rule. The affairincluded media reports about the accused and Gulf countries, including the involvement ofBassem Awadallah, a former head of the Jordanian Royal Court who worked as an adviser toMbS.

Miller argues that given the chronic tensions with King Abdullah over reported Saudiinvolvement in the alleged coup plot involving Prince Hamzah, a visit to Amman will“demonstrate that Saudi-Jordanian tensions have at least been papered over. Saudi funding forJordan’s economic development is also on the table.”

Aaron Magid, a US-based analyst and the host of the On Jordan podcast, also thinks that theHamzah issue will be part of the private discussion but will not dominate the visit.

“The 2021 Prince Hamzeh sedition affair looms large over this week’s meeting between KingAbdullah and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,” he said. “While the Saudigovernment’s exact role in the affair remains ambiguous, King Abdullah would likely beinterested in a personal commitment from MbS not to intervene in internal Jordanian politics,especially within the royal family going forward.

“A tangible way for MbS to strengthen ties with Jordan would be to boost economic aid to the cash-strapped Amman but without any conditions attached for the Hashemite Kingdom,” Magidsaid.

Regional and royal family issues aside, Jordan has many hot issues on its plate, including the Syrian refugee humanitarian issue, the drug problem at the border, and a serious economic crisis with high unemployment, especially among the youth.

Many in Jordan are hoping the visit will end a period of cold relations and help to improve thedifficult economic situation. Saudi Arabia, which was a major supporter of the Jordaniantreasury, has stopped doling out money without strings attached.

Saudi Arabia last pledged to support Jordan’s general budget at the 2018 Mecca Summit, in theform of a $250 million grant to be transferred in five annual installments of $50 million.

Samar Muhareb, CEO of Arab Renaissance for Democracy and Development, a Jordanian thinktank, told The Media Line the visit comes at a unique time for Jordan.

“After the pandemic, we got inflation and Jordanians are optimistic that this visit could offer a relief from the economic problems,” she says.

Muhareb is worried about high expectations, but she anticipates that many things will change locally and regionally with the birth of a coalition that includes Jordan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Egypt.

The US and Israel, of course, have other plans, she argued. “But it is not clear where SaudiArabia is moving on Israel or if Jordan will be the bridge for Saudi to Israel.”

Tagreed Odeh, a Jordanian political scientist, told the Media Line the crown prince’s visit aims atpreempting the summit that Biden will hold with Arab leaders in Saudi Arabia.

“Relations with Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states have always been strategic for Jordan, but to ensure the success of this relationship, a lot of effort and agreements are needed on the security and economic fronts,” Odeh says, adding that the visit comes at a sensitive time as the area is suffering from continuous regional wars as well as the aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Biden also has several hot issues on his plate including the Yemen cease–fire, regional economic and security cooperation, and guaranteeing the world supply of energy, especially in light of the war in Ukraine. All these issues are in addition to the major problem of Iran, whose relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE has been strained of late.

Many argue that the US president’s principal goal is to encourage the oil-producing Gulfcountries and Iraq to increase production, in a move he hopes will lower gasoline prices inAmerica in the crucial months before the midterm elections on November 8.

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