World News

TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan will donate $1 million to Afghan earthquake relief efforts in response to a call from the United Nations and others for humanitarian assistance, the government said late on Thursday.

Taiwan is not a U.N. member due to pressure from China which considers the democratically-governed island part of its territory, but is always keen to show it is a responsible member of the international community.

Taiwan’s presidential office said in a statement that the government would donate “based on the spirit of humanitarian care for disaster relief regardless of national borders (and) responding to the United Nations and other humanitarian calls.”

However Taiwan will not send search and rescue teams after consulting with other countries and considering the difficulty of transportation, office spokesman Xavier Chang added.

Taiwan also lies in a quake-prone zone and regularly sends rescue teams to other disaster areas around the world.

China has said it stands ready to provide Afghanistan aid, and on Friday its foreign ministry said that it is “stepping up efforts” to collect cash, tents, bed quilts and other humanitarian aid to deliver to Afghanistan as soon as possible, but did not offer details of the size of the aid package.

Around 1,000 people are already confirmed dead from the quake in a remote part of the country this week.

Taiwan and China have sparred over humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, with Taiwan donating more than $30 million for refugees and rebuilding and China around $3 million.

China has accused Taiwan of using the donations for political purposes. This has been strongly rejected by the government in Taipei which has said the aid came “from our heart”.

When asked for comment on the speediness of Taiwan’s donations in Ukraine and Afghanistan and if China supports these donations, China’s foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Taiwan is part of China.

“Any attempt to use various banners and names to expand the space for Taiwan independence secessionist activities will not succeed,” Wang told reporters at a regular briefing in Beijing on Friday.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Additional reporting by Martin Quin Pollard in Beijing; editing by Richard Pullin and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

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Kuwait’s Parliament Dissolved as Gulf State Heads To Snap Election

Emir hopes vote will resolve political stalemate, enable reforms

The emir of Kuwait, Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, dissolved the country’s unicameral National Assembly on Wednesday, paving the way for early elections.

Sheikh Nawaf, 84, who has delegated the powers of governance to his half–brother, Crown Prince Sheikh Mishaal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, since November due to his travel for medical treatment, said in brief remarks after announcing the move that “the crown prince will give more details.”

“I instructed my brother, the crown prince, to deliver a speech on my behalf, which we hope will clarify everything that is going on. We are fully aware of and follow the political scene,” the emir said.

The Kuwaiti government submitted its resignation back on April 5, less than four months after its appointment as the fourth government in two-and-a-half years, after the National Assembly voted to “not cooperate” and accused three deputy prime ministers of violating the constitution, disrupting citizens’ interests, and corruption. Since then, the government has assumed a caretaker role.

In his televised speech, Crown Prince Mishaal, 81, identified 10 reasons for dissolving the legislature, the most prominent of which are: increasing differences and conflicts;lack of cooperation between the government and parliament; the presence of personal interests and whims within parliament; and practices and behaviors that threaten national unity.

“We decided, under the will of the people and out of respect for their will, to resort to the constitution, and based on our constitutional right stipulated in Article 107 of the constitution, to dissolve the National Assembly as a constitutional solution and call for general elections in accordance with the constitutional procedures, dates and controls,” he said.

The election will be scheduled in the coming months after preparing the “necessary legal arrangements,” the crown prince said.

He called on the people to “make a good choice in the upcoming elections” and “to rally around the political leadership,” announcing the start of a new phase of cooperation and warning of the turbulent conditions and dangers in the region.

The crown prince promised not to interfere in the people’s choice of their representatives, or even to intervene in choosing the speaker of the National Assembly or the various parliamentary committees. He stressed that the Kuwaiti political leadership will stand at the same distance from everyone and will not support one group at the expense of another.

Unlike other countries in the region, Kuwait has an active political life and its parliament, whose members are elected for four-year terms, enjoys broad legislative powers and is often the scene of intense debate. Final authority, however, rests with the emir.

In January, Fitch Ratings downgraded Kuwait to AA- from AA with a stable outlook, citing “ongoing political constraints” that undermine the country’s ability to address structural problems.

All Kuwaiti newspapers praised the crown prince’s speech and the emir’s directives, and stressed the emir had acted to “protect the constitution” and to repair the confused situation.

Arkan al-Enezi, a Kuwaiti journalist, told The Media Line, “The emir’s steps will solve a major crisis that was afflicting the country. The last National Assembly was a major obstacle, during which three governments were formed, all of which were rejected. Such a matter cannot be accepted.”

“Unfortunately, the ministers’ questions were not based on a correct basis. They were either due to personal interests or because of a dispute that has nothing to do with the ministers’ work,” he added.

“It may not be the last time that parliament is dissolved. Unfortunately, those who represent the people repeat the mistakes of their predecessors,” Enezi said.

Jaber Hammoud, a Kuwaiti political analyst, told The Media Line that “the steps taken by the emir of Kuwait are 100% legal, and there is no objection from any groups within the people, because the parliament is almost dysfunctional, and the government is only a caretaker government.”

He said that “Parliamentary work since the first day of the speaker’s election was a farce. They questioned the elections, then questioned the legitimacy of the parliament speaker, and attacked the president and ministers, all for the sake of personal interests and accounts.”

“We hope that there will be an election of new faces in parliament. It is about the people, but this may not happen correctly, because sometimes voting is based on the fact that this person is from my tribe or from the category to which I belong or do not belong, and not on the basis of competence,” Hammoud also said.

The prominent Kuwaiti media figure Fajr al-Saeed commented on Twitter, saying: “It’s no use, we are bored.”

The owner and editor-in-chief of the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Seyassah, Ahmed al-Jarallah, said, “The speeches of the emir of Kuwait and the crown prince left the impression on people that there is an authority, and not as they think, that it is absent or hesitant, or indecisive.”

The National Democratic Alliance liberal bloc said in a statement obtained by The Media Line that “the speech of the emir put an end to the political chaos that Kuwait was suffering from, and the disruption of institutions that took place at a sensitive time during and after the coronavirus pandemic. The people must choose their representatives away from any sectarian or ethnic calculations.”

None of the 50 elected National Assembly representatives objected to the decision of the emir in statements published by the media, as they all agreed on the need to resolve the impasse facing the legislative and executive authorities.

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Ankara, Riyadh Announce Increased Cooperation as Erdogan Grapples WithEconomic Crisis

Turkey’s president trying to warm ties with several countries in the region in bid to woo investment

[Istanbul] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in a joint statement in Ankara late Wednesday, announced plans to increase bilateral cooperation.

It is the prince’s first visit to Turkey since being accused of ordering the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist and Saudi national, in Istanbul more than three years ago.

The two countries will work together on trade, investment and regional issues to increase stability, and increase flights between them.

Erdogan greeted and embraced Prince Mohammed in a ceremony in Ankara that was televised live.

The visit to Turkey was the last leg of a regional trip for the prince that included stops in Egypt and Jordan.

Erdogan said before the visit that the meeting was aimed at advancing relations, something he attempted with his own visit to Saudi Arabia in April.

Relations with Saudi Arabia plummeted in October 2018 when Khashoggi, a columnist for the Washington Post, went missing after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

US intelligence blamed Prince Mohammed for ordering the murder of the journalist and Erdogan said “the highest levels of the Saudi government” were to blame for his death, but did not mention the crown prince by name.

In the days after Khashoggi’s disappearance, international media converged on the Saudi consulate as anonymous sources within the Turkish government continually leaked additional details of how they said the journalist had been killed.

Journalists were later invited back to the area around the consulate for theunveiling of a symbolic tombstone for Khashoggi, with the event attended by Jeff Bezos, owner of The Washington Post.

The leaks and the attention paid to the Saudi consulate helped Erdogan put major pressure on his Saudi rivals.

Three-and-a-half-years later, that tombstone is surrounded by weeds, and security officials at the consulate won’t allow pictures to be taken.

The Turkish president is now in a much different position.

Erdogan has been seeking investment from other countries amid an economic crisis in the Anatolian nation where the official inflation rate is reported at 70%,and the Turkish lira lost 44% of its value last year and another 23% so far in 2022.

A group of independent economists say the real inflation figure is 160%.

The bad economic news has hit Erdogan’s approval rating and put into question his chances of returning to office and holding onto his parliamentary majority in national elections that are due next year but could take place earlier.

“He had to throw the towel in,” said Timothy Ash, an economist focused on Turkey, who added that the visit came down to Erdogan’s need for money.

“It’s as simple as that. He needs cash, a lot of it and as much as he can get,” Ash told The Media Line.

Erdogan’s need for investment, especially ahead of the campaign season, meant he was looking to work with wealthy countries, and the only realistic options werethe United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the economist said.

Ash believes the Saudis will look to buy assets in Turkey at a low price, to take advantage of the country’s poor economy and desperation for funds.

“They will look to exploit Turkey’s weakness,” Ash said.

He added that Riyadh wants to end the rivalry with Turkey and accepted that Erdogan has given up on some of his fights for regional influence, such as through support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

Ryan Bohl, a Middle East and North Africa analyst with RANE/Stratfor, said Saudi Arabia wants to project an image of itself as not causing conflict abroad and move past Prince Mohammed’s early years.

That’s a stance that Ankara seems to accept.

“It’s enormously important from a symbolic level: Not only is Erdogan saying the assassination doesn’t matter, he’s also dropping the direct personal competition he was having with [the crown prince] in favor of cooperation,” Bohl told The Media Line.

He added that Erdogan is also hoping for a defense deal, including possibly a sale of the Bayraktar drone that has become famous after Ukraine’s successful use of it against the Russian invasion.

Turkey could be an attractive arms seller for Saudi Arabia because Ankara is not concerned about how its weapons are used, in contrast to Washington, Bohl said.

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President Zelenskyy Tells Israeli Students Jerusalem Should Step Up Support for Kyiv  

Hebrew University students agree that Israel could do more, while envoy tells The Media Line that Israel’s left-wing parties have been most sympathetic to the cause  

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed students and faculty of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem via video on Thursday, telling them that his country is disappointed by the level of support – both diplomatically and materially – it has received from Israel in its war with Russia. During his address, Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine’s request for Israel to sanction Russia and for increased military aid.

The Media Line spoke to students that participated in the program, who said that they are grateful for Israel’s help but feel that Israel could do more. At the same time, the students say that they understand Israel’s security concerns in maintaining a more neutral stance toward the conflict. They also noted that the government’s current stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could affect how they vote in the upcoming election in Israel.

1,jpg – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses students and faculty of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem via video on June 23, 2022. (Debbie Mohnblatt/The Media Line)

Linked video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hf02438TGd0

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ANKARA (Reuters) – Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday that Ankara was investigating claims that Ukrainian grain has been stolen by Russia and would not allow any such grain to be brought to Turkey.

Kyiv’s ambassador to Ankara said in early June that Turkish buyers were among those receiving grain that Russia had stolen from Ukraine, adding he had sought Turkey’s help to identify and capture individuals responsible for the alleged shipments.

Russia has previously denied allegations that it has stolen Ukrainian grain.

“We take every claim seriously and are investigating them seriously. We notify especially the Ukrainian side of the result every time,” Cavusoglu said in a joint news conference with British Foreign Minister Liz Truss in Ankara.

The Ukrainian foreign ministry did not immediately comment on the matter.

Russia and Ukraine account for nearly a third of global wheat supplies, while Russia also heavily exports fertilizer and Ukraine corn and sunflower oil. But Ukrainian grain shipments from its Black Sea ports have stalled since Russia invaded, with some 20 million tonnes of grain stuck.

Cavusoglu said Turkey would oppose Russia or any other country taking Ukrainian grain or other goods and selling them illegitimately to international markets.

“We, as Turkey, will not allow these goods to come to us,” he said.

(Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu and Ali Kucukgocmen; Writing by Daren Butler; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Toby Chopra)

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LONDON (Reuters) – World Health Organization (WHO) experts meet on Thursday to evaluate whether monkeypox constitutes an international emergency, its highest form of alert.

Only six such emergencies have previously been declared: COVID-19 (2020), the Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo (2019), Zika virus (2016), polio (2014), West Africa’s Ebola outbreak (2014), and the H1 virus that caused an influenza pandemic (2009).

WHO does not declare pandemics, but it did start using the term to describe COVID-19 in March 2020. For many governments, that – rather than WHO’s earlier declaration of an emergency – was the moment they began to take real action to try to contain the disease, which proved to be far too late to make a difference.

Other outbreaks, such as yellow fever in Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2016, were assessed by the WHO’s committee but ultimately did not meet the criteria: an unusual event spreading internationally which needs cross-country co-operation.

The declaration largely serves to draw attention, and does not officially unlock funding or new measures, although it can lend more weight to WHO’s advice and the actions taken by countries. An expert committee makes the recommendation, but the ultimate decision lies with the Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

Here are the details:

COVID-19

Recent estimates from WHO suggest that around 15 million people may have died as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It was declared an emergency by the U.N. agency in January 2020, about a month after the first reports of a novel coronavirus from Wuhan, China.

An independent panel appointed by the WHO said recently the agency should have declared the new coronavirus outbreak in China an international emergency earlier.

EBOLA IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

The WHO’s emergency committee on Ebola declared the outbreak an international emergency in July 2019, after authorities in DRC had already spent a year fighting the disease in an active conflict zone. There were 3,481 cases and 2,229 deaths.

ZIKA

The WHO in 2016 declared Zika a public health emergency of international concern. Zika had spread to more than 60 countries and territories since the outbreak was identified in Brazil in 2015.

By November 2016, when the WHO declared an end to the emergency, there had been some 2,300 confirmed cases worldwide of babies born with microcephaly, most in Brazil.

Microcephaly is a condition caused by the virus, and marked by abnormally small heads that can lead to developmental problems.

POLIO

In 2014, the WHO declared the resurgence of polio to be a public health emergency of international concern, and the label still applies to the disease that can paralyse and kill children.

Pakistan’s failure to stem the spread of the disease triggered the global measures, which also applied to Syria and Cameroon. Polio cases in Pakistan rose from 58 in 2012 to 93 in 2013, more than a fifth of the world total of 417.

EBOLA IN WEST AFRICA

An Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia between 2013 to 2016 killed at least 11,300 people, more than all other known Ebola outbreaks combined.

The spread of the haemorrhagic fever also cost the economies of those three countries an estimated $53 billion, according to a 2018 study in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.

SWINE FLU

The swine flu pandemic of 2009 killed an estimated 284,500 people, about 15 times the number confirmed by laboratory tests at the time, according an international group of scientists.

A 2012 study in the Lancet Infectious Diseases journal said the toll might have been as high as 579,000 people. The original count, compiled by the WHO, put the number at 18,500.

(Reporting by Jennifer Rigby; Editing by Josephine Mason and Tomasz Janowski)

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By Mohammad Yunus Yawar and Sayed Hassib

GAYAN, Afghanistan (Reuters) -Afghan authorities struggled on Thursday to reach a remote area hit by an earthquake that killed 1,000 people but poor communications and a lack of proper roads hampered their efforts, officials said.

The magnitude 6.1 earthquake struck early on Wednesday about 160 km, (100 miles) southeast of Kabul, in arid mountains dotted with small settlements near the border with Pakistan.

“We can’t reach the area, the networks are too weak, we trying to get updates,” Mohammad Ismail Muawiyah, a spokesman for the top Taliban military commander in hardest-hit Paktika province, told Reuters, referring to telephone networks.

The earthquake killed some 1,000 people and injured 1,500 injured, he said. More than 3,000 houses were destroyed.

The toll makes its Afghanistan’s deadliest earthquake in two decades, according to U.S. government data.

About 600 people had been rescued from various affected areas on Wednesday night, disaster management officials said.

The town of Gayan, close to the epicentre, sustained significant damage with most of its mud-walled buildings damaged or completely collapsed, a Reuters team said.

The town, with only the most basic roads, was bustling with Taliban soldiers and ambulances as a helicopter bringing in relief supplies landed nearby, whipping up huge swirls of dust. About 300 people sat on the ground waiting for supplies.

The rescue operation will be a major test for the hard-line Islamist Taliban authorities, who took over the country last August after two decades of war and have been cut off from much international assistance because of sanctions.

The Taliban-led ministry of defence is leading rescue efforts.

The United Nations said its World Food Programme (WFP) was sending food and logistics equipment to affected areas, with the aim of initially supporting 3,000 households.

“The Afghan people are already facing an unprecedented crisis following decades of conflict, severe drought and an economic downturn,” said Gordon Craig, WFP deputy country director in Afghanistan.

“The earthquake will only add to the already massive humanitarian needs they endure daily.”

Japan and South Korea both said they also plan to send aid.

Large parts of South Asia are seismically active because a tectonic plate known as the Indian plate is pushing north into the Eurasian plate.

In 2015, an earthquake struck the remote Afghan northeast, killing several hundred people in Afghanistan and nearby northern Pakistan.

(Reporting by Sayed Hassib in Gayan and Mohammad Yunus Yawar in KabulWriting by Alasdair Pal; Editing by Robert Birsel)

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From King to Kingmaker?

Israel’s Bennett ends a year in office as political deadlock once again looms

When Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was sworn into office in June 2021, there was hope that Israel was finally emerging from a lengthy political crisis. After four national elections in less than two years and a polarized society characterized by a bitter and often virulent discourse, Israelis needed a break from the nasty politics.

A year ago, many thought the new government would quickly collapse.

“Against all odds, it was a year in which normalcy returned to Israeli society and the political system,” said Eran Vigoda-Gadot, a professor of public administration at the University of Haifa.“It was clear, however, that it wouldn’t complete its [four-year] term.”

Almost a year to the day after he entered office, a solemn Bennett on Monday announced his decision to dissolve the Knesset. He has not yet said whether he will run in the upcoming election. Yet his role on the political scene may be far from over.

On Wednesday, the Knesset passed in a preliminary vote, 110-0, the bill to dissolve itself and pave the way for Israel’s fifth election within three and a half volatile years. It is expected to become law next week.

A look back at a year of the Bennett government shows success alongside failures and unfulfilled promise.

He entered office after over 12 years in which Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu ran the government, as the country was slowly emerging from the COVID-19 crisis and in the immediate aftermath of May 2021’s bloody war with Hamas in Gaza.

Perhaps the greatest success, other than its yearlong survival, was the approval of a state budget. This came after three years in which the country functioned without one due to the political paralysis.

“This was very important, as were the appointments of senior justice officials and other senior appointments,” said Dr. Emmanuel Navon, an expert on international relations at Tel Aviv University. “The government also began critical reforms in agriculture, education, and the economy. There were many things that had not been done in years.”

Now, things have come to a halt. With, according to the polls, the political map largely unchanged, it is difficult to see how continued progress will be made. In fact, Israel may be entering another endless loop of back-to-back elections.

As he pronounced the death of the coalition, Bennett listed what he saw as his achievementsduring his 12 months in power. Israel battled two major waves of the coronavirus without imposing lockdowns. Violence along the Gaza border subsided and an unprecedented massive budget for Israel’s large Arab sector was approved.

The coalition was the first to have an independent Arab party (Ra’am) in it, causing many to refer to the government as a political experiment. Bennett had his hands full with challenges, leading a diverse group of eight parties ranging from the extreme left to his own ultra-nationalist Yamina party. With a razor-thin majority that quickly turned into a parliamentary minority, it was an uphill battle destined to fail.

Perhaps his greatest defeat was his failure to maintain such a heterogeneous coalition.

“Bennett chose the wrong people. He did not have people around him who provided solid backing, people whom he could trust,” said Navon. “With such a slim majority to begin with, he needed disciplined partners which he did not have.”

One of Bennett’s own party members never voted in favor of the coalition from the get-go. As two additional Yamina lawmakers eventually joined member of Knesset Amichai Chikli, Bennett struggled to rein in his own party.

When Bennett spoke to the Knesset at the inauguration of the government, he said the coalition would be putting aside contentious issues. It was an attempt to avoid rocking the boat, aiming to guarantee the stability of the unlikely partnership. Reality kept testing him and the government.

In recent months, Israel has faced an upsurge in terrorist attacks perpetrated both by Palestinians and by Arab-Israeli citizens. This was the challenge many thought a government with Arab participation could not withstand.

“A door was opened; it was an example of how cooperation is possible,” said Vigoda-Gadot, “This was a success that changed the discourse in the country and opened the option for non-Zionist citizens to sit in the government.”

Navon said, “This is very interesting progress and a positive precedent that broke a taboo. Instead of polarization, we saw the option for cooperation on certain issues for the benefit of both Arabs and Jews.”

Ultimately it was not Arab-Jewish strife that led Bennett to conclude the coalition had reached its end. It was the impossible political constellation with immense pressure from the right-wing opposition that rendered the tasks at hand an insurmountable challenge.

“The government did not fall due to the recent security tensions,” Vigoda-Gadot said. “Rather because of politicians who saw nothing but their own personal interests.”

The glue that brought the government together, namely keeping Netanyahu away from the helm, was not enough for some of the coalition members, especially those with affiliation to the former premier’s bloc.

During the year and a week in which Bennett was in power, there was also a marked change in Israel’s international relations. Bennett and Foreign Minister Lapid repaired bipartisan ties with the US.

After years of tensions with Jordan and Egypt, there was an open dialogue with leaders from both countries. Ties with Gulf nations, which began during the Netanyahu era, deepened.

On the Iranian nuclear program, Bennett said he “made sure Israel’s interests were guaranteed”through dialogue with the US.

The US decision to not remove the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps from its terror group list was seen by some, including Bennett, as the result of Israeli pressure on the matter.

“The Biden Administration was much more inclined to work with Bennett than with Netanyahu,” said Navon. “Clearly the good relations with Bennett allowed for more agreements on the Iranian issue and this is one of his achievements.”

Once again, the political fate of Israel will be decided by very slight changes that could tip the balance post-election. This is where Bennett, however politically battered he may be, could be critical.

“The arena is very turbulent and a lot of things could happen. A few thousand votes could lead to a major change,” Vigoda-Gadot told The Media Line.

As the Knesset pressed forward Wednesday with the legislation that will enable a snap election, the 50-year-old Bennett was business as usual. Several polls show his party barely crossing the 3.25% vote threshold needed to enter the Knesset.

“Bennett has many years ahead of him; he might take time off from politics, which would be the end of his political party,” said Vigoda-Gadot. “If he runs and gets a small number of mandates, he could still play a decisive role as a kingmaker.”

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Here We Go Again: Israel’s 5th Election on the Horizon

As the government moves to dissolve the Knesset, sending thecountry back to the polls, experts believe the result will bepolitical deadlock, again

On Wednesday, the Israeli parliament voted to dissolve itself, inthe first of four readings that the bill needs to become law.

The process is expected to conclude on Monday, or perhaps aday or two later, after which the Foreign Minister Yair Lapidwill become caretaker prime minister until an election is heldand a new government is formed.

The expected election which will be the country’s fifth in threeand a half years.

On Monday evening, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett andForeign Minister Yair Lapid announced they would begin theprocess of dissolving the Knesset. They did so to preempt theopposition, which they expected to bring down the governmentnext week.

Professor Jonathan Rynhold, head of the Department of PoliticalStudies at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv, toldThe Media Line the results of the election that will be held at theend of October or the beginning of November are expected to bevery similar to those of the last one held in March 2021.

Eyal Lewin, chairman of the Department of MultidisciplinaryStudies at Ariel University, explained that the participation ratein Israeli elections is always high and that therefore, theoutcome won’t be very different from the last four elections.

Israelis, he told The Media Line, “will go to vote just like theprevious times. Israelis vote, they care about the results. Andbecause Israelis are going to vote, and also voted during the lastrounds, the chances of any meaningful change are very small.”

The election could produce several possible scenarios.

According to Rynhold, the most likely outcome is that no partywill manage to form a coalition with the majority of theparliament, as is needed to form a government.

If that happens, he added, either Lapid will continue as primeminister and there will be another election or former PrimeMinister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will force him tostep down as its candidate for the premiership.

In that case, a center/right-wing government will be formed,probably led by Likud, and Lapid and his Yesh Atid party willbe part of it, explained Rynhold.

However, he believes the chances of his party turning onNetanyahu out are low. “It is by no means certain the Likudwould displace Netanyahu; therefore, an election would bepossible,” continued Rynhold.

Another scenario would see Netanyahu, the religious parties, and the far-right parties get 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset and form a government. “I think that is the second most likely outcome,” Rynhold said.

Lastly, Lapid might manage to form a government similar to thecurrent one, based on the same coalition.

As for Bennett, Lewin believes his only chance to be re-elected is to leave Yamina and join another party.

He lost his base the moment he formed an alliance withMansour Abbas, chairman of the Islamist Ra’am party, Lewinsaid. “So his voters won’t vote for him. His only chance to getvoted in is if he joins with somebody else.”

Lewin said that Bennett can’t run like he did the last time, “him,[Interior Minister Ayelet] Shaked and another two or three[candidates in their own party], because they won’t be in theKnesset.”

Rynhold added that even though Bennett is “politically burned”right now, he is not out of the game.

“I think that for the time being, Bennett is ‘burned’ politically.But many people have come back from being burned in Israelipolitics, including Netanyahu and Ariel Sharon. So just becausehe’s burned now, it doesn’t mean he’s out,” he continued.

Lapid, on the other hand, heads to the election in a much bettersituation.

“It’s always an advantage to be on the horse when you’re in therace,” said Lewin, referring to Lapid assuming the caretakerprime minister role until a new government is formed.

“It’s a great advantage because people get used to seeing him asa prime minister, to seeing him as a leader,” he added.

Netanyahu, who is seeking a third stretch as prime minister,evokes conflicting emotions among Israelis.

There is no general Israeli opinion about Netanyahu, saidRynhold. “Israel is divided. The ideological Right, the ultra-Orthodox and Likud loyalists love Netanyahu, and the rest of thecountry hates him,” he added.

Rynhold explained that Netanyahu’s chances of forming agovernment depend on the turnout, “particularly the turnout inthe Arab sector.” The higher that turnout, the worse it is forNetanyahu, and the better it is for Lapid and the coalitionpartners in the current government, he explained.

The last possibility, one that Bennett wants to prevent bydissolving the Knesset as quickly as possible, is for agovernment headed by Netanyahu to be formed without anelection.

However, Rynhold believes the chances for that to happen arevery low.

To do that, he explained, Netanyahu would need 61 votes for a“constructive no-confidence vote.”

“I don’t see the Arab parties giving him [the votes he needs toreach] 61, and I don’t see anyone in the [current] coalition withenough lawmakers giving him 61 either,” Rynhold said.

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Abraham Accords Are Secure Despite Israeli Gov’t Turmoil, Gulf Analysts Say

Solidarity against Iran the key, and it will continue, the consensus finds

The political instability and the pending elections in Israel will not affect the Abraham Accords normalization agreements, a majority of Gulf and Arab experts say.

Gulf media outlets view the problems plaguing the Bennett government and the Knesset as a political dispute between the various political parties in Israel, while some newspapers indicate that these differences are related to the corruption charges against the opposition leader and former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

“Bahrain and the UAE wish for political stability in Israel, especially since stability there means moving forward in the new relationship with the Hebrew state,” Saad Rashid, a Bahraini political analyst, told The Media Line.

“There will certainly be no impact on the Abraham Accord. Some other agreements, whether related to the economy, education, or other areas, may be delayed, but certainly, there will be no retreat from the Abraham agreements,” Rashid said.

Marwan Hatem, a journalist specializing in Israeli affairs, toldThe Media Line, “The political differences within the Israeli government have been going on for more than four years, and they do not significantly affect foreign policies.

“The most important thing for the Gulf and Arab countries is for the new Israeli government to maintain its anti-Iranian stance, which puts pressure on the reluctant US administration to reject any return to the nuclear agreement with Iran that might cause a crisis in the region,” he continued.

“[Likely interim Prime Minister] Yair Lapid, [outgoing Prime Minister Naftali] Bennett, and others are hostile to Iran. Military and security agreements with the countries of the region will continue, and this is the most important thing,” Hatem said.

Montaser Qassem, a journalist specializing in Iranian affairs, told The Media Line, “I do not expect a change with regard tothe deployment of anti-missile, radar, and anti-drone systems in the Gulf in both Bahrain and the Emirates, which were previously announced.

“With regard to the Palestinian issue, the countries that signed peace agreements with Israel still believe in the two-state solution, which is perhaps the decision within the Israeli government, but the most important thing for all the countries now is the stability of the region,” Qassem said.

Gulf and Arab activists who usually tweet about Israeli affairs did not comment on the political problems of the Israeli government and the announced dissolution of the Knesset and only reported the news as it was.

Mohammed Naqi, an Emirati writer, agreed with the above commentators on the Gulf states’ priorities regarding Israel.

“Gulf countries do not interfere in internal affairs [of other countries] and respect them as usual, and they deal with any other government according to the norms, charters, and agreements between the two countries,” Naqi said.

A member of the Bahraini parliament who preferred not to be named commented for The Media Line, “Certainly, the agreements with Israel are stable, and the Israeli government’s position toward Iran is also consistent because Iran is a common enemy.”

He added, “What we fear is an internal change toward a policy of expanding settlements in the [Palestinian] territories, or the continuation of pressure and practices toward Al-Aqsa Mosque, or that the new government will be tougher on the Palestinians

“It is true that Israeli policy is stable, and it is a state of institutions that does not depend on personal decisions, but there were also governments that were less severe in dealing with the Palestinians, and others that were very severe. We hope that the new government in Israel will realize the importance of easing pressure on the Palestinians and speeding up the two-state solution,” the Bahraini lawmaker said.

In the same context, the Palestinian-born Al-Jazeera journalistJamal Rayyan held a nonscientific poll on his official Twitter account showing that 93% of the thousands of respondents rejectthe idea of creating an alliance between Arab countries and Iran to confront Israel.

Rayyan, who holds American citizenship, is known for his hatred and criticism of the peace agreements with Israel. He deleted the poll’s result and submitted it for a revote, claiming the initial results had been distorted by “the sudden entry of 4,000 votes by Zionist flies in order to mislead Arab public opinion.”

Mutlaq al-Anzi, a Saudi political analyst, told The Media Line:“Israeli policies are fixed, and they will not change regardingany of the regional or internal files, no matter how governments change. There is no fear of any future government in Israel.”

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