SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia may be at the end of its cycle of interest rate cuts if the “tariff madness” instigated by U.S. President Donald Trump escalates into a global trade war, NAB CEO Andrew Irvine said on Tuesday.
A “global tariff war” would stoke global inflation and pose challenges for Australia, Irvine said. Last month, Australia cut interest rates for the first time since November 2020 to 4.1%.
“We’re not an island,” he told the Australian Financial Review Banking Summit. “If this tariff madness does happen, we could be at the end of reductions [in Australia].”
NAB, the country’s third-largest mortgage lender and top business lender, is currently forecasting two quarter-point rate cuts in the back half of 2025.
(Reporting by Christine Chen and Byron Kaye in Sydney; Editing by Himani Sarkar)