Politics

By David Morgan and Katharine Jackson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -A top Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives predicted on Tuesday his party will muster the votes needed to adopt a plan to slash spending and raise the government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, despite signs of growing opposition within Republican ranks.

“This will pass. I’m telling you right now, it will pass the House floor,” Representative Tom Emmer, the No. 3 House Republican, told Reuters in an interview.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy can afford to lose support from no more than four of his 222 Republican members, if he is to pass the bill, which would raise the borrowing limit by $1.5 trillion.

But at least that many appeared to be withholding support as lawmakers returned to Washington on Tuesday. Republican leaders say the legislation is not open to changes.

The proposal has little chance of passing the Democratic-controlled Senate, and the White House said Tuesday that President Joe Biden would veto it if it reached his desk.

Biden said Congress must raise the debt ceiling without conditions, as it did three times under Republican President Donald Trump, to avoid default.

“A default would be totally irresponsible,” Biden told a union gathering in Washington. “We’re not a deadbeat nation.”

Republicans hope a show of unity can force Biden to negotiate after a months-long standoff.

“For Republicans, this is literally a choice between getting this done and giving the ball to Kevin McCarthy, or if you don’t want to get it done, then you’re giving a blank check to Joe Biden,” Emmer said.

The House Rules Committee, a gatekeeper on legislation, will take up the bill on Tuesday afternoon. That could be followed by a House floor vote as early as Wednesday.

Washington and Wall Street are focused on the coming “X-date,” possibly just weeks away, when the U.S. Treasury would no longer be able to pay all its bills, triggering a default that would shake the global economy.

It could be difficult for Congress to raise the debt ceiling before then if House Republicans are unable to unite behind a proposal, analysts say.

“That’s the scenario that introduces the greatest amount of risk into the equation,” said Rohit Kumar, co-leader of PwC’s national tax office in Washington.

The last prolonged standoff over the debt limit, in 2011, led to a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, which shook financial markets and raised borrowing costs.

Debt markets are already flashing warning signs as investors grow wary. Investors expect the Treasury Department to offer a new “X-date” forecast in the coming weeks.

HOW MANY ‘NO’ VOTES?

Manhattan Institute senior fellow Brian Riedl gives House Republicans a 50-50 chance of passing the legislation this week.

“The vast majority of Republicans are on board,” Riedl said. “But you have both moderate and conservative lawmakers trying to push it in competing directions.”

Some Republicans say it does not do enough to cut the deficit.

“At this moment, I’m a no,” Representative Nancy Mace told Reuters.

Others are pushing for tougher work requirements for social programs, or worry that proposed cuts to renewable-energy tax credits would hurt their home states.

(Reporting by David Morgan and Katharine Jackson; additional reporting by Steve Holland and Kanishka Singh; Editing by Scott Malone, Andy Sullivan, David Gregorio and Deepa Babington)

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By Joseph Ax

(Reuters) – Georgia prosecutors will reveal this summer whether former President Donald Trump will be charged with crimes related to interfering with the 2020 election, the Atlanta district attorney said on Monday, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis in letters sent to local law enforcement agencies said she would disclose charging decisions sometime during the Fulton County Superior Court’s summer term, which begins on July 11 and concludes on Sept. 1, the newspaper reported.

The letters, which the paper reported were sent to the Atlanta police chief, the county sheriff and the county emergency management director, were intended to give law enforcement enough time to prepare for possible violence. Willis warned that the announcement would likely “provoke a significant public reaction,” according to a copy of the letter posted online by the newspaper.

A spokesperson for Willis did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Willis told a court in January that charging decisions were “imminent,” shortly after a special grand jury finished a months-long investigation into whether Trump and his associates illegally attempted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, won by Joe Biden.

The special grand jury’s report, which includes recommendations on possible charges, has remained largely under seal pursuant to a judge’s order. The special grand jury was not empowered to issue indictments.

Trump’s lawyers filed a motion in March seeking to block prosecutors from using the grand jury’s findings. Willis’ office has been ordered to respond by next week.

Willis’ probe began soon after a recorded January 2021 phone call in which Trump asked Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, the state’s top election official, to “find” the votes to reverse Biden’s victory.

Trump, who is seeking the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, has denied wrongdoing and accused Willis, an elected Democrat, of targeting him for political gain.

Trump became the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges when New York prosecutors indicted him on March 30 for falsifying business records related to hush money payments made to a porn star who claimed to have had an affair with him.

He also faces other investigations, including a pair of U.S. Justice Department probes into his handling of classified materials after leaving the White House as well as his efforts to alter the 2020 election results.

(Reporting by Joseph Ax in Princeton, New Jersey; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

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(Reuters) – North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum on Monday signed into law a bill that would ban most abortions, creating an exception for rape and incest victims but only during the first six weeks of pregnancy.

The law, which makes it a felony for a doctor to perform an abortion, provides other exceptions including to save the life of the mother or in cases where her health is at serious risk. But rape and incest victims would have to carry their pregnancies to term unless “the probable gestational age of the unborn child is six weeks or less,” Senate Bill 2150 says.

The bill cleared both houses of the North Dakota legislature with veto-proof majorities and is the latest to pass in a Republican-led state since the U.S. Supreme Court last year overturned the federal right to an abortion, enabling states to impose restrictions.

At least 13 states have enacted abortion bans while North Dakota joins a number of other states to ban abortion after a certain period of gestation, ranging from six to 20 weeks.

Still more states have abortion restrictions that have been temporarily blocked by judges until underlying lawsuits are heard, including North Dakota, where the state Supreme Court blocked a previous abortion restriction. Meanwhile in many Democratic-led states there are abortion protections in place.

“This bill clarifies and refines existing state law which was triggered into effect by the (U.S. Supreme Court) Dobbs decision and reaffirms North Dakota as a pro-life state,” Burgum said in a statement, according to the Rapid City Journal.

The governor’s representatives did not immediately respond to a request from Reuters for comment.

(Reporting by Daniel Trotta)

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By Nandita Bose

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -President Joe Biden met three Tennessee lawmakers at the White House on Monday after they faced expulsion for participating in gun control protests at their statehouse, calling the decision to remove two of them “shocking” and “undemocratic.”

“You’re standing up for our kids, you’re standing up for our communities,” Biden told state Representatives Justin Pearson, Justin Jones and Gloria Johnson during an Oval Office meeting.

Jones and Pearson – two young Black legislators – were expelled earlier this month but were soon after returned to office by their localities in special votes. Johnson, who is white, narrowly survived an expulsion vote.

The Republicans who control the Tennessee legislature called for their expulsion because they had disrupted House proceedings, saying the three violated decorum rules by protesting on the House floor.

The three lawmakers joined children, parents and others protesting at the state Capitol days after a Nashville school shooting killed three 9-year-old children and three school staff members.

The lawmakers said they discussed with Biden red flag and safe storage laws, an assault weapons ban and strengthening background checks, among other possible gun control measures.

“There’s such incredible interest in getting something done, in action,” Johnson said.

The Tennessee lawmakers did not say what specific actions, if any, Biden discussed taking at the national level.

“We talked about how Tennessee can be a model for the nation,” Jones said. “This is not a moment it is a movement.”

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said last week that Biden appreciated the three state representatives calling for stronger gun restrictions, particularly a ban on so-called assault weapons – an issue the president has continued to push for.

Vice President Kamala Harris also attended the meeting with Biden. Harris traveled to Nashville to meet the three lawmakers earlier this month and echoed their calls for change.

(Reporting by Nandita Bose in Washington; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Bill Berkrot)

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By Jeff Mason

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden will veto congressional efforts to overturn his policy to waive solar tariffs on four Southeast Asian nations for two years, White House officials told Reuters on Monday.

In June, Biden waived tariffs on solar panels from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam in an effort to create a “bridge” while U.S. manufacturing ramped up.

Last week a U.S. House of Representatives committee voted in favor of restoring the tariffs on the solar panels from the four countries, reversing Biden’s suspension. That legislation is expected to come up for a full vote in the House.

The White House argues that Biden’s policy has worked and points to an increase in domestic solar production since Biden came into office.

“This legislation would sabotage U.S. energy security. It would undermine our momentum in creating a massive new domestic industry. It would sideline workers who are fired up to build these projects and operate them across the country,” Ali Zaidi, Biden’s national climate adviser, told Reuters.

“It’s not about slowing things down. It’s about fundamentally undermining our progress towards increased energy security and having the tools we need to attack the climate crisis,” he said.

The United States is on track to increase domestic solar panel manufacturing capacity 8-fold by the end of 2024, another official said.

Biden does not plan to issue an extension on the tariff waivers after the 2-year period has concluded because domestic manufacturing has taken off.

“Given the strong trends in the domestic solar industry, the President does not intend to extend the tariff suspension at the conclusion of the 24-month period in June 2024,” the White House said in a “Statement of Administration Policy” obtained by Reuters before its official release.

“If Congress were to pass this joint resolution, the President would veto it,” it said.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Nick Zieminski)

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By Jeff Mason

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Joe Biden has selected Julie Chavez Rodriguez, a senior adviser at the White House and deputy campaign manager of his 2020 presidential campaign, to be his campaign manager for the 2024 election, according to a source familiar with the plan.

Rodriguez, who is director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs, has accepted the role, the source said.

Biden, a Democrat, has said he plans to run for re-election. He could make a formal announcement as early as Tuesday.

The president, 80, is gearing up for what could be a bruising campaign. His team has been eyeing Wilmington, Delaware, where Biden has a home, as the base for the campaign.

Biden had been considering at least three people for the campaign manager role, according to Democratic sources familiar with the deliberations.

The choice of Rodriguez may be a win of sorts for Vice President Kamala Harris, who has struggled to win over the Washington establishment during her tenure; Rodriguez was a senior aide on then-Senator Harris’s 2020 presidential campaign and had worked in her Senate office.

Biden is expected to keep his circle of close advisers at the White House even as he runs for re-election. His former campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon is now a White House deputy chief of staff.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason; editing by Diane Craft)

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By Jeff Mason

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -President Joe Biden’s team has picked Julie Chavez Rodriguez, a senior adviser at the White House and deputy campaign manager of his 2020 presidential campaign, to be his campaign manager for the 2024 election, according to a source familiar with the plan.

Rodriguez, who is director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs, has agreed to take the role, the source said.

The source later added that Biden has yet to make the offer to Rodriguez himself. Rodriguez was Biden’s senior advisers’ top choice for the role after they interviewed nearly a dozen people, the source said.

A second source said Rodriguez has been a major ally within the West Wing for Vice President Kamala Harris, who has struggled to win over the Washington establishment during her tenure. Rodriguez was a senior aide on then-Senator Harris’s 2020 presidential campaign and had worked in her Senate office.

Biden, a Democrat, has said he plans to run for re-election. He could make a formal announcement as early as Tuesday.

The president, 80, is gearing up for what could be a bruising campaign. His team has been eyeing Wilmington, Delaware, where Biden has a home, as the base for the campaign.

Biden is expected to keep his circle of close advisers at the White House even as he runs for re-election, making the campaign manager’s job, based outside of Washington, tricky.

His former campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon is now a White House deputy chief of staff, and other longtime senior advisers including Anita Dunn and Steve Ricchetti are expected to stay on at the White House.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason; editing by Diane Craft)

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Republican U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy said on Sunday the House would hold a vote in the coming week on his spending and debt bill, adding he was confident he had the votes to pass the bill.

(Reporting by Kanishka Singh in Washington; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

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By Jeff Mason

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – It won’t be a campaign from the basement this time.

As U.S. President Joe Biden gears up for a bruising re-election battle, the realities of the 2024 race and differences with 2020 at the height of the coronavirus pandemic create new challenges for him.

Biden, a Democrat, says he is running again and is considering a formal announcement via video as soon as Tuesday.

In 2020, Biden kept a low profile as the spread of COVID-19 caused havoc to most aspects of American life, including the election campaign that pitted him against then-President Donald Trump, a Republican.

Trump still spoke at big rallies but Biden did much of his campaigning virtually from the basement of his home in Wilmington, Delaware, largely avoiding crowds to prevent the spread of disease and reduce his own risk of catching the virus.

That will change this time around. Gone will be the aversion to public events, large and small, likely replaced by traditional campaign stops at diners, factories and union halls with handshakes, selfies, and crowds of people.

The Democratic convention in Chicago will be in-person rather than online. And Biden, who at 80 is already the oldest president in U.S. history, will have his day job to do while he makes the case for four more years in office.

AGE FACTOR

Republicans will watch closely for signs of a diminished schedule to suggest that age has made Biden less fit for the campaign trail, and for the White House.

“It’s quite shocking that Biden thinks he would be able to fill a second term, let alone the rest of this term,” said Republican strategist Scott Reed.

Trump, the early front-runner for the Republican nomination, is himself 76 years old.

Biden’s reply to concerns about his age and running for re-election has been to say “watch me,” and the White House points to his record of legislative accomplishments as a sign of his effectiveness.

“An extensive travel schedule is not the measure of a candidate’s ability to do the job,” said Democratic strategist Karen Finney. “There’s no scenario where the Republicans don’t try to make his age an issue. We know that. And so the focus has to be on … what is the most effective way to reach the American people. Some of that, yes, is going to be in-person events and travel, but there may be other innovations.”

CAMPAIGN REINVENTED

Biden campaign aides reinvented his 2020 campaign as COVID-19 spread across the country.

Some of the innovations were regarded as a success, including star-studded virtual fundraisers done without the need for expensive travel.

But other changes were more controversial, including a months-long prohibition on the use of door-knocking by campaign volunteers and the regular appearances by Biden in his home’s basement, which became a meme panned by right-wing voters.

Having to get out more than in 2020 could help Biden, said Meg Bostrom, co-founder of Topos Partnership, a strategic communications firm.

“Just look at the State of the Union (address.) That was the best I’ve ever seen. When Republicans started heckling him, he just lit up,” she said. Biden sparred ably with Republicans during his speech to Congress in February.

But other issues may trip up the incumbent president on the campaign trail, including his handling of the economy.

“The allure for voting for Biden in 2020 was sort of the quaint notion of getting back to normal,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell, referring to the chaos of Trump’s time in office.

“The problem for Biden is that he’s been in power … and things are anything but normal, especially when it comes to the economy and inflation.”

GRAPHICS-Consumer inflation, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/INFLATION/jnvwybyemvw/chart.png RECESSION CONCERNS

Biden took office in January 2021 just as COVID vaccines were rolling out, and economic conditions gradually normalized during his early tenure after the shock of nationwide shutdowns. The United States now boasts 3.2 million jobs over the pre-pandemic peak.  

    But Americans are concerned about a potential recession, and Biden may suffer from being on the wrong side of an economic cycle heading into 2024, with unemployment likely to rise as growth slows, interest rates remaining high and inflation potentially hovering above pre-pandemic levels.

GRAPHICS-Unemployment by race and ethnicity, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/JOBS/gdvzqqznapw/chart.png Trump, who has announced his re-election bid already and could be Biden’s opponent again, is expected to follow the strategy that he employed in 2016 and 2020 with multiple large rallies to energize his base.

But he will first have to win what could be a grueling Republican nomination contest – something that Biden, as an incumbent without major opposition inside his party, will not face.

“We don’t need fire and brimstone. We don’t need rah rah rallies,” said Democratic strategist Joe Lestingi. “We need the strength and conviction of our values and a steadiness not to move on them.”

Biden, he said, would provide that steadiness.

“I think he’ll get out more,” Lestingi said, praising Biden’s skill at traditional “retail” politics. “If you get an opportunity to be with him in a small intimate setting, he can make a real big difference.” GRAPHICS-The jobs hole facing Biden and the Fed, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/JOBS/jbyprzlrqpe/chart.png

(Reporting by Jeff Mason; additional reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt, Steve Holland, Howard Schneider and Andrea Shalal; editing by Grant McCool)

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By Nathan Layne

CLIVE, Iowa (Reuters) – Republican presidential hopefuls will make their pitch to evangelical voters in Iowa on Saturday, the first major event for candidates to court the key conservative voting bloc in a state set to hold the party’s first nominating contest in early 2024.

The annual presidential forum, hosted by the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition conservative nonprofit is a chance for evangelical leaders and voters to see where the candidates stand on issues ranging from abortion to school choice.

It will be headlined by former Vice President Mike Pence, a devout evangelical who may soon launch a presidential bid, and U.S. Senator Tim Scott, who is exploring a run. Former President Donald Trump will participate remotely via video link.

The event comes as Trump appears to be consolidating his grip on the Republican Party, with some national polls showing him expanding his lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a potential primary rival who is not attending the forum but will visit the state next month.

Iowa is slated to hold the first-in-the-nation Republican caucus in early 2024. Strong evangelical support early on in the nominating process could help give a challenger a chance to strike a blow against Trump, who won three-fourths of the white evangelical vote nationally in 2020.

“There is potential for somebody else because there are some Republicans, even some who voted for Trump in ’16 and ’20, who are saying it’s time to move on,” said Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa.

Among other scheduled speakers at Saturday’s event are former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, venture capitalist and author Vivek Ramaswamy and Michigan businessman Perry Johnson, all of whom have said they plan to seek the Republican nomination.

Trump won 76% of the white evangelical vote in 2020, down from 80% in 2016, according to Edison Research exit polls. About one-third of U.S. adults identify as born-again or evangelical Christians, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll in November 2020.

The former president seems to be gaining ground with evangelicals. In a March poll by Monmouth University, Trump edged DeSantis among evangelicals in a two-way matchup 51% to 42%, a nine-point improvement for Trump from the month before. 

Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition, said each speaker on Saturday evening will have four minutes to talk freely to the audience, followed by a moderated session of questions and answers.

Scheffler said that while support for Trump remains solid, many evangelicals want to “kick the tires” and are open to another candidate. He said religious liberty, abortion and transgender issues would be among the topics in focus at the event.

(Reporting by Nathan Layne; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Alistair Bell)

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