2026

MEXICO CITY (AP) — After the United States military intervention in Venezuela, the Mexican government and analysts discounted the likelihood of unilateral U.S. military action against Mexican drug cartels, despite threats from President Donald Trump.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has been complying with Washington’s demands and the economic ties between the two countries are vital, they say.

Nonetheless, many expect more such threats as a way to extract more concessions from Mexico. No one dares rule out completely an unexpected move by the U.S. president.

Sheinbaum downplayed the possibility of U.S. military action Monday. “I don’t see risks (of that),” she said. “There is coordination, there is collaboration with the United States government.”

“I don’t believe in (the possibility of) invasion, I don’t believe even that it’s something they are taking seriously,” she said. “Organized crime is not taken care with (foreign military) intervention.”

Here are some of the reasons:

Mexico has a radically different situation from that of Venezuela or other countries Washington is eying, like Cuba. First, Sheinbaum is a popular and legitimately elected president. Second, Mexico is the main commercial partner of the United States, a country where 40 million Mexicans live. Third, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio “has recognized that there is high-level cooperation with Mexico,” said Martha Bárcena, former Mexican ambassador to the United States.

Trump and his collaborators have flirted with the idea of invading or attacking the cartels in Mexico since his election campaign, but in increasingly measured tones.

Sheinbaum has confirmed that the idea of U.S. military intervention in Mexico has been brought up repeatedly in her conversations with Trump, but said she has always rejected the offer. She sees it has a non-starter and insists that her relationship with Trump is one of mutual respect.

The threat though, similar to those about tariffs on Mexican imports — some carried out and others not — have been a “negotiation weapon” to get “commercial, diplomatic and political advantages,” said Mexican security analyst David Saucedo. Rubio and Trump “play good cop, bad cop,” with Trump threatening and Rubio smoothing over, he said.

Mexico is doing almost everything that Washington has requested since Trump began imposing tariffs, experts say. Sheinbaum’s administration became more aggressive toward the cartels than her predecessor. There have been more arrests, drug seizures and extraditions. Mexico has agreed to receive more deportees from other countries.

“Intervention, military action in Mexico would suspend that cooperation,” said Carlos Pérez Ricart, a political analyst at Mexico’s Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE). That would be a great risk to the U.S. because it would be left without a partner to work with, he added.

Saucedo said that U.S. military action in Mexico would require money, logistics and risks, while “a comment, a post on social networks doesn’t cost anything” and has been very effective.

Analysts believe the threats will continue to be the Trump administration’s negotiation style, especially this year when the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA) is up for revision.

Saucedo said Trump could demand more access for U.S. security agencies, even if operations are presented publicly as coordinated and carried out by Mexico. He could also pressure Mexico for more high-profile captures or to stop exporting oil to Cuba, or threaten new tariffs.

“With the ongoing negotiations over punitive tariffs, the statutory revision of the USMCA and the delicate antidrug cooperation agenda, the Mexican government will have to be very meticulous in its position and statements,” Arturo Sarukhán, another former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. said. Rallying around Maduro “would cost Mexico dearly,” as could Mexico’s ongoing support of Cuba.

Bárcena, the diplomat, said that what Mexico still needs to address is political corruption tied to organized crime while still defending international law.

No one is willing to rule out U.S. military intervention even if the possibility is very slim.

“The United States does not function under rational logic,” Pérez Ricart, the analyst, said. “At this moment all possibilities are open, including those unimaginable a year ago.”

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By Nerijus Adomaitis and Essi Lehto

OSLO, Jan 5 (Reuters) – Latvian police have found no evidence linking a ship docked in the port of Liepaja to damage to an underwater telecoms cable running in the Baltic Sea from Latvia to Lithuania, but are investigating the incident further, authorities said on Monday.

The Baltic Sea region is on high alert after a string of power cable, telecom link and gas pipeline outages since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and the NATO military alliance has boosted its presence with frigates, aircraft and naval drones.

The latest outage, of a cable belonging to Swedish fibre optics group Arelion, occurred on Friday near Liepaja. Investigators said on Sunday they had boarded a ship and initiated criminal proceedings, but did not name the vessel.

INSPECTED SHIP AND ANCHOR

The incident came four days after Finnish police seized a vessel en route from Russia to Israel on suspicion of sabotaging an Elisa telecoms cable running across the Gulf of Finland to Estonia by dragging its anchor.

Arelion, owner of the Latvia-Lithuania fibre link, said on Monday one of its cables linking Finland and Estonia was also damaged on December 31, confirming earlier reports, and that a cable from Estonia to Sweden stopped working on December 30.

“All three cables are fully severed,” an Arelion spokesperson said in an emailed statement, adding that each case was under investigation.

“We expect the first cable to be restored within a few days, and the remaining cables within the next one to two weeks.”

MarineTraffic vessel tracking data show four ships crossing the Lithuania-Latvia cable on their way to Liepaja port on January 2, when the latest incident occurred. Three of those ships remained in the port on Monday.

Latvian police said on Monday they had inspected a ship at Liepaja, including its anchor, as well as technical equipment and logs, and that the crew had voluntarily cooperated.

“At present, the information obtained in the criminal case does not indicate a connection of the specific ship with the damage to the optical cable,” a national police statement said.

(Reporting by Nerijus Adomaitis in Oslo, Essi Lehto in Helsinki and Anna Ringstrom in Stockholm; editing by Terje Solsvik and Mark Heinrich)

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