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2026

Analysis-World absorbs historic Iran war oil supply loss, but depleted stocks bring risks

Analysis-World absorbs historic Iran war oil supply loss, but depleted stocks bring risks 150 150 admin

By Dmitry Zhdannikov, Robert Harvey and Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) – The world has absorbed with surprising ease the loss of over a billion barrels of oil supply since the Iran war began, but, with long-term peace elusive and buffer reserves now drained, it still faces the looming risk of future price spikes.

Tehran’s throttling of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. and Israeli attacks launched on February 28 fed fears of a catastrophic global energy crunch.

The ensuing four-month conflict did, indeed, create the biggest energy disruption in history, according to the International Energy Agency. At its worst, the headline supply loss was 14 million barrels per day.

But worries that Asia and Europe would run out of gasoline, diesel or jet fuel never materialised. And after peaking around $126 per barrel in April — still some $20 below the 2008 record — benchmark Brent oil prices are now lower than they were when the conflict began.

“This suggests traders viewed the disruption as serious but manageable, reflecting confidence in today’s more resilient energy and economic systems,” said John Baffes, senior economist at the World Bank.

Since the oil crisis of the 1970s, World Bank data shows that oil intensity — a measure of the role oil plays in economic activity — has fallen by more than half in most advanced economies and roughly 20% in emerging and developing countries.

Beyond that structural shift, however, three specific factors have been responsible for forestalling the worst-case scenario during the Gulf crisis.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE found alternative routes to export. Asia, led by China, curtailed buying. And countries around the world likely pulled around 1 billion barrels of oil from their reserves, including via an IEA-led record stocks release.

CHINA ADJUSTMENTS EASE GLOBAL PRESSURE

When the war broke out China had nearly 1.4 billion barrels of oil stored, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That was more than the 1.2 billion barrels held by all of the 32 members of the IEA combined, including the United States’ 413 million barrels.

China’s rapid electric vehicle adoption in recent years along with flexibility in oil and petrochemicals output also helped, said Ilia Bouchouev, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

“They are managing the market a lot better than (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) used to,” said Bouchouev, a former head of derivatives trading at Koch Global Partners.

The adjustments by China, the world’s biggest oil importer, helped ease global demand pressure. And the IEA’s scheme to release 400 million barrels of reserves provided further breathing room at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump was repeatedly stating an end to the war was imminent.

“Traders always took the view this can’t go on much longer,” said Neil Atkinson, a former IEA official.

Washington’s narrative management, that more supply was coming, also made hedge funds reluctant to hold long positions that bet on prices rising, Societe Generale analysts noted.

With the signing last month of a preliminary agreement to end the war, there has been a rapid swing back towards business as usual.

“The market seems to have decided that this peace deal is for real,” Atkinson said.

LOST BUFFER RISKS MORE SPIKES

In reality, however, little is as it was before the war.

Even as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Bahrain resume production and exports, it will be years in some cases before they fully repair the damage to their energy infrastructure caused by Iranian attacks.

While prices may reflect expectations of a rapid return to pre-war supply levels, data on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz tells a different, more pessimistic story.

And with the clock ticking on the 60-day ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, progress towards a final agreement to end the war has been achingly slow, with key questions — including the fate of Iran’s nuclear programme — still unresolved.

Meanwhile, there’s the mammoth task of rebuilding global oil inventories.

The global economy weathered the shock by drawing down stocks at a record pace, according to IEA data, draining the very buffers designed to protect it from supply crises.

“It doesn’t mean we can’t operate without one, it just means that forward prices could be more prone to spikes,” Bouchouev said.

That kind of volatility is costly.

Every $5 increase in oil prices adds roughly $190 billion in annual costs to the global economy, according to Reuters calculations based on oil demand of 104 million barrels per day.

Replenishing oil stocks, never cheap, has likely been made more expensive by the war.

Before the conflict, the European Central Bank had estimated 2027-2028 oil prices at $63 to $64 per barrel. That’s now risen to an average of $65 to $75, according to an ECB report published in June.

At current Brent prices, it would likely cost more than $70 billion to replace reserves drawn down to mitigate Iran war supply loss.

But until that is done, the world is operating without a safety net in an environment still fraught with uncertainty.

“The markets may be underestimating the risk of further oil flow disruptions,” said Saul Kavonic, head of research at MST Marquee. “Iran is likely to continue to find pretexts to stymie flows through the strait.”

(Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Robert Harvey and Ahmad Ghaddar, additional reporting by Sarah McFarlane; Writing by Alex Lawler; Editing by Simon Webb, Jason Neely and Joe Bavier)

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Anderson Cooper's farewell to 60 Minutes

Anderson Cooper's farewell to 60 Minutes 150 150 admin

In a heartfelt sign-off, Cooper reflects on the stories, risks, adventures, and human connections that defined his two decades with television’s most iconic newsmagazine.
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New evacuation orders after "significant growth" of Willow Fire

New evacuation orders after "significant growth" of Willow Fire 150 150 admin

Authorities overseeing the firefight against the week-old Willow Fire west of Leadville issued new evacuation and pre-evacuation orders Sunday morning after the blaze grew by nearly 1,000 acres in 24 hours.
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J.K. Simmons: A real character

J.K. Simmons: A real character 150 150 admin

Indonesia daycare abuse case grows to 27 suspects, police say

Indonesia daycare abuse case grows to 27 suspects, police say 150 150 admin

JAKARTA, July 6 (Reuters) – Indonesian police named 14 more people as suspects in an alleged child abuse and neglect case at a daycare centre in Yogyakarta city, an official said on Monday, bringing the number of suspects to 27 people in a case which has sparked outrage in the country.

Police raided the daycare centre in late April, and said they found dozens of children aged between two and six years old with their hands and feet tied. Some children were tied to doors. 

Police arrested 13 people at the time, including the owner of the Little Aresha daycare, its principal and caregivers, on suspicion of alleged child abuse and neglect. The daycare centre, located in the cultural city of Yogyakarta, was also operating without a licence, police said.

The new suspects included 10 caregivers, a security officer and administration staff, Apri Sawitri, head of child protection at Yogyakarta’s police criminal investigation unit, told Reuters.

Apri said the caregivers were named suspects because it is alleged that they “took part” in the child abuse and neglect, while the security officer and other staff are alleged to have “allowed” it to happen.

The new suspects are being questioned and police will make a decision on whether they have grounds to make any arrests, she added. Reuters could not immediately contact the lawyers representing the suspects.

The police had completed their investigation into the first 13 suspects and the provincial prosecutor’s office is drafting formal charges to be submitted to a local court, Apri said. 

It was unclear when the trial will start, she said, and more people could still be named as suspects with police investigations continuing. 

(Reporting by Ananda Teresia; Editing by John Mair)

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Folarin Balogun will play in U.S. World Cup match against Belgium after FIFA suspends match ban

Folarin Balogun will play in U.S. World Cup match against Belgium after FIFA suspends match ban 150 150 admin

Folarin Balogun will play in the U.S.-Belgium World Cup match after FIFA suspended his one-game ban following a red card. Nicole Valdes reports.
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Airbus informally aims for 900 deliveries after strong June, sources say

Airbus informally aims for 900 deliveries after strong June, sources say 150 150 admin

PARIS, July 6 (Reuters) – Airbus has set an internal goal of 900 deliveries this year after handing over 89 jets in June, while keeping its official full-year guidance of 870 deliveries unchanged, industry sources said.

June’s total reflects an ongoing surge in deliveries as Airbus catches up on delayed deliveries to China and benefits from some easing of disruption to engine supplies, they said.

Airbus did not respond to a request for comment. Bloomberg reported on Friday that Airbus delivered around 90 jets in June.

(Reporting by Tim Hepher; Editing by Joe Bavier)

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Anissa Helou’s new book of recipes from Lebanon spotlights villages scarred by war

Anissa Helou’s new book of recipes from Lebanon spotlights villages scarred by war 150 150 admin

BALLOUNEH, Lebanon (AP) — Before becoming one of the Middle East’s most acclaimed cooks and food writers, Anissa Helou had no intention of either path. She entered the world of cooking and writing almost by accident when she was in her late 30s.

Now 74, Helou has a wide following in the region and elsewhere and has released nearly a dozen books since the 1990s about food in the Middle East and beyond. Last month she received Britain’s prestigious Guild of Food Writers Lifetime Achievement Award.

The daughter of a Lebanese mother and a Syrian father, Helou was born into a Christian family and grew up watching her mother, grandmother and paternal aunt cooking. It opened her eyes to the food traditions of the two countries, both widely known in the region for their varied and flavorful cuisine.

“I was always fascinated by the kitchen, by their movements (and) by how they put things together, by the chopping,” Helou said about her mentors. “I love being in the kitchen with them and of course I loved eating.”

Helou’s latest book, “Lebanon: Cooking the Foods of My Homeland,” was officially released in late June in Beirut in a ceremony at Lebanon’s Tourism Ministry attended by scores of people including food critics and restaurant owners.

The book, which comes as the country has been battered by two wars in the past three years between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group, includes a section about food in some of the southern Lebanese villages that have suffered the worst destruction.

During her repeated visits there, most recently in October 2023, she found residents had their own regional variations of traditional cuisine. They include mujadara, a dish mainly consisting of lentils that is often cooked with rice, but in southern Lebanon is more likely to be made with bulgur.

“I discovered more, like, variations and added dishes, rather than something that was a complete revelation,” Helou said.

She has picked walnuts from a tree growing along the giant wall separating southern Lebanon from northern Israel and met residents who have lost their homes and businesses in the Hezbollah-Israel conflict.

Helou recalled Moussa Ibrahim from the southern village of Dibbine, which has been the site of intense clashes between Israel troops and Hezbollah fighters. Fighting there in 2024 caused Ibrahim to lose his business producing mouneh: vegetables, fruits, grains and dairy preserved with traditional Lebanese techniques including sun-drying, salting, pickling or submerging in olive oil.

Helou, who has traveled the world to sample food, said she loves Korean and Japanese in addition to Middle Eastern cuisine.

“Lebanese, Iranian and Moroccan are among the greatest cuisines,” Helou said earlier this month in her late mother’s apartment in the Mount Lebanon town of Ballouneh.

“Lebanese cuisine is kind of a little bit more sophisticated, a lot fresher, more vibrant” compared with some other Middle East food, Helou said as she prepared a traditional Lebanese lamb confit called awarma.

Asked for the home of the region’s best food, Helou did not hesitate to move outside Lebanon and name Syria’s largest city, Aleppo.

Famed for its centuries-old covered market, which was badly damaged during Syria’s civil war beginning in March 2011, Aleppo is known for varied and elaborate cuisine with influences from Persia, North Africa and Armenia.

“I think that Aleppo is undoubtedly the gastronomic capital of the Middle East, regardless of me being Syrian,” she said.

Global anti-Islamic sentiments rose dramatically after the Islamic State group took large parts of Syria and Iraq and declared a caliphate in 2014, launching deadly attacks in the region and the world.

Helou responded with a book of about 300 recipes of dishes from Muslim countries.

“I was thinking, one way of presenting Islam and Muslim people positively could be through their foods,” she said.

Helou, who left Lebanon at the age of 21, holds citizenship in Lebanon, Syria and the United Kingdom and has spent much of her time in Britain and Italy. She still regularly visits Lebanon, cooking and asking people how they make specific dishes.

Helou refused to cook for years while she was a young woman and told her partner at the time not to expect her to make meals.

“I didn’t want to be domesticated. I was like a feminist and so I didn’t cook for a very long time,” she said.

One day a friend prepared a meal at their home and Helou saw the happiness it gave her partner, prompting her to think she should start cooking.

Her decision to become a food writer came in 1992 when a discussion with a group of Lebanese living abroad gave Helou the idea of filling a gap in Lebanese cookbooks with a collection of her mother’s recipes. As it happened, there was a publisher looking for someone to write such a book.

“That’s how I started, by sheer coincidence,” Helou said.

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Annin Flagmakers: The oldest, largest flagmaker in the U.S.

Annin Flagmakers: The oldest, largest flagmaker in the U.S. 150 150 admin

Jericka Duncan visits Annin Flagmakers’ factory in South Boston, Virginia.
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US Supreme Court to hear gun, LGBT, voting rights cases in next term

US Supreme Court to hear gun, LGBT, voting rights cases in next term 150 150 admin

By Nate Raymond and Will Dunham

WASHINGTON, July 5 (Reuters) – The U.S. Supreme Court, fresh off a momentous term, already has a slate of important cases set up for its next term that begins in October on issues including guns, voting restrictions, LGBT rights and a disputed detention policy used by President Donald Trump’s administration for certain convicted immigrants.

There also are cases due to be argued in the next term involving big corporations. These include a bid by ExxonMobil and Suncor Energy to scuttle a climate-related lawsuit by officials in Boulder, Colorado, a dispute arising from an antitrust suit by “Fortnite” maker Epic Games against Apple and a trademark case involving PepsiCo.

The justices issued the final rulings of their last term — one dominated by cases involving Trump and his policies — last Monday and Tuesday, and more Trump-related cases being litigated in lower courts promise to reach them during their next term.

THE SECOND AMENDMENT

The court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, has steadily moved American law rightward this decade. It has taken an expansive view of the U.S. Constitution’s Second Amendment right to “keep and bear arms,” and issued two more rulings last month widening gun rights.

The gun case coming in the next term gives the justices an opportunity to strike down state restrictions on assault-style rifles such as AR-15s. They took up two appeals after lower courts upheld bans on such weapons in Connecticut and in Cook County, Illinois, which includes the city of Chicago.

Gun rights groups have said Supreme Court precedents concerning the Second Amendment protect these weapons, which they described as in “common use.” Officials in Connecticut and Cook County have called them weapons of war and the guns of choice for criminals and terrorists.

The court reshaped gun regulation in 2022 when it held that modern restrictions must be “consistent with this nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation” in order to comply with the Second Amendment. Since then, four U.S. appellate courts have upheld state-level bans on assault-style weapons.

“I think it’s going to be hard for them to kind of sort out what the original understanding is for these kinds of new types of weapons,” Vanderbilt University law professor Brian Fitzpatrick said.

The court will have to grapple not just with whether the bans are consistent with historical U.S. regulation of firearms but more fundamentally with whether these weapons even constitute “arms” within the meaning of the Second Amendment, Fitzpatrick said.

Some appeals courts have held that they are not, as these semiautomatic weapons are ill-suited for self-defense and are predominantly useful in military service.

VOTING RIGHTS

The court has an important voting rights case lined up for its next term.

It will hear a Republican-led bid backed by the Trump administration to revive voter restrictions in Arizona that would stiffen proof-of-citizenship requirements for voter registrants and purge state voter rolls of alleged non-U.S. citizens.

Responding to a lawsuit by Latino-focused voting advocacy group Mi Familia Vota, a lower court halted provisions of Arizona’s law, finding they violated a federal voting registration statute.

Democrats have accused Republicans of pursuing voter suppression measures in a bid to lower voter turnout and disenfranchise specific groups of people who traditionally lean Democratic. Republicans have said their proposals are intended to protect election security.

“Much like with its mass-deportation agenda, the Department of Justice is asking for something unprecedented: the power to remove voters from the rolls based solely on suspicion that they are not citizens,” Hector Sanchez Barba, the head of Mi Familia Vota, said in a statement.

DETENTION CASE

The court has backed Trump in a series of cases involving his crackdown on immigration, though it ruled against his attempt to restrict birthright citizenship.

The justices in the coming term will hear his administration’s appeal in a case involving the legality of subjecting certain convicted immigrants with pending deportation proceedings to lengthy detention without bond hearings that would allow them to seek a release on bail.

A lower court ruled that the constitutional right to due process bars “unreasonably prolonged” detention without a hearing for non-U.S. citizens who face deportation after being convicted of certain crimes.

LGBT RIGHTS

Another LGBT-related case from Colorado comes before the court after the justices in March rejected the state’s law that banned psychotherapists from using “conversion” talk therapy intended to change an LGBT minor’s sexual orientation or gender identity on free speech grounds.

The justices will hear a bid by the Archdiocese of Denver ​and other Catholic entities for exemption from a Colorado preschool funding program’s ‌nondiscrimination requirement in the court’s latest clash between religious rights and LGBT protections. A lower court found that Colorado’s program did not violate ​the constitutional religious rights of the Catholic plaintiffs.

(Reporting by Will Dunham in Washington and Nate Raymond in Boston; Editing by Daniel Wallis)

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